Sunday, July 23, 2017

Dollar Index may have technical rebound

Dollar Index continues to go lower as expected.  Technical rebound may come soon.  Watch out for FOMC Statement, US Interest rate decision on Thur 0200 Hrs.
Resistance at TLD5, TLD3, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLU8, 96.3
Support at 94.0, 93.0, TLD2, 92.0


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 22 Jul 17

BDI closed at 964 (20 Jul) from 900 (14 Jul)
Harpex closed at 445.80 (15 Jul) from 435.96 (08 Jul)

Summary
Most soft commodities and metals closed higher while Energy closed lower.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Sugar (1)
  • Orange Juice
  • Natural Gas 
Neutral
  • Coffee  (1)
  • Cocoa (1)
Up Trend
  • Platinum (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Wheat
  • Oats
  • Rough Rice
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 22 Jul 17

Most markets closed mixed.
US markets closed higher except for Dow.

Dollar Index continues to go lower and may have technical rebound. 

Watch out for the corporate earning during this reporting season.  On Thu 0200 Hrs, FOMC Statement and US Interest rate decision.  On Fri, US and Canada will release GDP data. 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets closed higher except for Dow on the weekly chart.  On the daily chart, US markets broke hlf on the last day of the week.  
Corporate earning, Thur FOMC Statement, US Interest rate decision and Fri US GDP are the potential factors to move the markets.




Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU6, 23,462
Potential support around 21,451, TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,450, 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU7, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around 5,890, TLU3, 5,722, TLU5, TLU4, 5,538, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,420, 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
    24 Jul, Mon
    • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)    
    • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Jun)
    25 Jul, Tue
    • 0750 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
    • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul) 
    • 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) 
    26 Jul, Wed
    • 0930 AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
    • 1630 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q2) 
    • 2200 USD New Home Sales (Jun)
    • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
    27 Jul, Thu
    • 0200 USD FOMC Statement
    • 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
    • 2030 USD Durable Goods Orders (Jun)
    • 2030 USD Good Trade Balance
    28 Jul, Fri
    • 2000 EUR German CPI (YoY) (Jul)
    • 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (May) 
    • 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

    Sunday, July 16, 2017

    Dollar Index broke hlf

    Dollar Index broke hlf on weekly the chart and closed below 95 on Fri.  No recovery in sight yet.
    Resistance at  Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLU8, 96.3, 97.3, 98.3
    Support at TLD3, TLD5, 94.0, TLD2

    USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

    Weekly chart with 50 SMA

    Commodities Update - 15 Jul 17

    BDI back to 900 (14 Jul) from 822 (07 Jul)
    Harpex lower to 435.96 (08 Jul) from 439.54 (01 Jul)

    Summary
    Most commodities closed higher while Grains closed mixed.

    COT 
    Download Commodities COT
    Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
    Down Trend

    • Sugar (1)
    • Orange Juice
    • Natural Gas 
    Neutral
    • Coffee  (1)
    • Cocoa (1)
    • Platinum
    Up Trend
    • None

    Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
    Up Trend

    • Wheat
    • Oats
    • Rough Rice
    Neutral
    • None
    Down Trend
    • Feeder Cattle

    Note
    (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
    (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
    (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
    Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





    Indices Performance Chart - 15 Jul 17

    Markets closed higher across the board.  Nasdaq, ChinaA50 and Hong Kong rallied more than 3%.  Dow and S&P closed at historic high.  Reporting season just around the corner.
    No recovery in sight for Dollar Index.
    Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
    UT
    • None
    Neutral
    • None
    DT
    • None

    Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

    UT
    • None
    Neutral
    • None
    DT
    • None
    Note
    (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
    (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
    (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

    Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

    S&P, Nasdaq and Russell broke lhf on the weekly chart.  Dow and S&P closed at historic high. Dow formed an outside day in the weekly chart.  Moving forward reporting season just around the corner.

    Dow
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 23,462
    Potential support around TLU6, 21,451, TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968

    S&P
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
    Potential support around 2,450, 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187

    Nasdaq
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 5,890, TLU7, 6,261, 6,983
    Potential support around TLU3, 5,722, TLU5, TLU4, 5,538, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

    Russell
    Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 1TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
    Potential support around 1,420, 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240

    Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

      17 Jul, Mon
      • 1000 CNY GDP (YoY) (Q2)
      • 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
      • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jun)
      18 Jul, Tue
      • 0645 NZD CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
      • 0930 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
      • 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Jun) 
      • 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
      19 Jul, Wed
      • 2030 USD Building Permits (Jun)
      • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
      20 Jul, Thu
      • 0930 AUD Employment Change (Jun) 
      • 1000 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)   
      • 1100 JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)     
      • 1400 JPY BoJ Press Conference
      • 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
      • 1945 EUR Deposit Facility Rate
      • 1945 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 
      • 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
      • 2030 EUR ECB Press Conference
      21 Jul, Fri
      • 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
      • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

      Sunday, July 9, 2017

      Dollar Index rebounded after testing support

      Dolalr Index rebounded after testing trend channel support.
      In the weekly chart, it closed with an inside day.  To maintain the momentum, it must not break and close below 95 for more than a week.
      Resistance at  TLU8, 96.3, 97.3, 98.3, Trend Channel (Blue)
      Support at Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLD5, TLD3, TLD2

      USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

      Weekly chart with 50 SMA

      Commodities Update - 08 Jul 17

      BDI closed lower to 822 (07 Jul) from 901 (30 Jun)
      Harpex edge higher to 439.54 (01 Jul) from 438.35 (24 Jun)

      Summary
      Most commodities closed lower while Grains continues to close higher.

      COT 
      Download Commodities COT
      Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
      Down Trend

      • Sugar (1)
      • Coffee  (1)
      • Orange Juice
      • Natural Gas 
      • Gasoline
      • Platinum
      Neutral
      • None
      Up Trend
      • Soybeans
      • Soybean Meal
      • Corn
      • Cocoa (1)

      Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
      Up Trend

      • Wheat
      • Oats
      • Feeder Cattle
      • Rough Rice
      Neutral
      • None
      Down Trend
      • None

      Note
      (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
      (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
      (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
      Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






      Indices Performance Chart - 08 Jul 17

      Most markets continue to closed lower.  
      US Markets closed mixed with a small roc in the weekly chart. 
      Grains continue to close higher.
      Dollar Index rebounded and closed with an inside day in the weekly chart.
      Fed's Yellen will be testifying on 13 Jul.  US Retail Sales data on 14 Jul.
      Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
      UT
      • None
      Neutral
      • None
      DT
      • None

      Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

      UT
      • None
      Neutral
      • None
      DT
      • None
      Note
      (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
      (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
      (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
      Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


      US Markets closed mixed with a small roc in the weekly chart.  In the weekly chart, Dow broke lhf, Nasdaq and Russell broke pwl while S&P formed an inside day.


      Dow
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 21,451, TLU6, 23,462
      Potential support around TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669

      S&P
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
      Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137

      Nasdaq
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 5,722, TLU3, TLU7, 5,890, 6,261, 6,983
      Potential support around TLU5, TLU4, 5,538, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

      Russell
      Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 1,420, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
      Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

      Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

        10 Jul, Mon
        • 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Jun)
        11 Jul, Tue
        • No important data
        12 Jul, Wed
        • 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May)
        • 1630 GBP Claimant Count Change (Jun)
        • 2200 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
        • 2200 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 
        • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
        • 2315 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
        13 Jul, Thu
        • 1611 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Jun)
        • 2200 USD Fed's Yellen Testifies
        14 Jul, Fri
        • 2030 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 
        • 2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)   
        • 2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 

        Sunday, July 2, 2017

        Dollar Index broke multiple support levels

        In the weekly chart, it broke hlf, support level and downtrend channel.  95.0 will be next support level.  Due to oversold, potential technical rebound at sights.
        Resistance at Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3, 97.3, 98.3, Trend Channel (Blue)
        Support at  TLD5, 95.0, TLD3, TLD2

        USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

        Weekly chart with 50 SMA



        Commodities Update - 01 Jul 17

        BDI closed higher from 870 (23 Jun) to 901 (30 Jun)
        Harpex lower from 439.54 (17 Jun) to 438.35 (24 Jun)

        Summary
        Most commodities closed higher except metals closed lower.

        COT 
        Download Commodities COT
        Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
        Down Trend

        • Soybeans (1)
        • Soybean Meal
        • Sugar (1)
        • Coffee  (1)
        • Orange Juice
        • Natural Gas (1)
        • Gasoline
        • Platinum
        Neutral
        • Corn
        • Cocoa (1)
        Up Trend
        • Soybean Oil

        Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
        Up Trend

        • Wheat
        • Oats
        • Feeder Cattle
        • Rough Rice
        Neutral
        • None
        Down Trend
        • None

        Note
        (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
        (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
        (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
        Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






        Indices Performance Chart - 01 Jul 17

        Most markets closed lower.  US markets (except Russell) broke hlf on the weekly chart. 
        Dollar Index continues to be bearish; broke hlf, support level and downtrend channel. Potential technical rebound at sights.

        Most commodities closed higher except metals.

        Important data for the week are FOMC meeting minutes on 06 Jul 0200Hrs. Nonfarm payroll and USD Unemployment Rate on 07 Jul.
        Volatilities will continue. 
        Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
        UT
        • None
        Neutral
        • None
        DT
        • None

        Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

        UT
        • None
        Neutral
        • None
        DT
        • None
        Note
        (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
        (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
        (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
        Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


        On the weekly chart, US markets (except Russell) broke hlf.  Nasdaq formed an outside day.  Russell broke lhf and closed with a small roc.

        Dow
        Daily UT, Weekly UT
        Potential resistance around 21,451, TLU6, 23,462
        Potential support around TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669

        S&P
        Daily UT, Weekly UT
        Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
        Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137

        Nasdaq
        Daily UT, Weekly UT
        Potential resistance around 5,722, TLU3, TLU7, 5,890, 6,261, 6,983
        Potential support around TLU5, 5,538, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

        Russell
        Daily UT, Weekly UT
        Potential resistance around 1,420, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
        Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

        Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

          03 Jul, Mon
          • Canada Holiday
          • US close early
          • 0750 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2) 
          • 0750 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2) 
          • 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
          • 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 
          • 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 

          04 Jul, Tue
          • US Holiday
          • 0930 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 
          • 1230 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
          • 1230 AUD RBA Rate Statement   
          • 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 
          05 Jul, Wed
          • 1630 GBP Services PMI (Jun)
          • 06 Jul, Thu
          • 0200 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
          • 2015 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) 
          • 2200 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) --
          • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
          07 Jul, Fri
          • 1630 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May) 
          • 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) 
          • 2030 USD Unemployment Rate (Jun) 
          • 2200 CAD Ivey PMI (Jun)