Sunday, April 23, 2017

Indices Performance Chart - 22 Apr 17

Most markets closed lower while US markets closed higher.  
Dollar Index tested trend support and closed above it.
Closely watch event will be French presidential election.  The first round will take place on 23 Apr (Sun) follow by the second round on 7 May (Sun) between top 2 candidates. 
Economy data to watch out for the week are BoJ Press conference, Monetary Policy Statement, ECB Press Conference on Thu (27 Apr).  On Fri, UK, US and Canada will be reporting their GDP data.
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets end the week higher except for Dow.
The trading range is rather limited.  1,389 is a very strong resistance for Russell,  if can close above it for the 2-3 bar (in the weekly chart) with +roc, it will be a positive sign. Looking at the other angle using COT, the probability of downside is higher.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU11, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669, 18,557, TLU1, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522
Potential support around 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU7, TLU5, 5,538, TLU3
Potential support around TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,389, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

    24 Apr, Mon
    • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr)
    25 Apr, Tue
    • New Zealand and Australia Holiday.
    • 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)
    • 2200 USD New Home Sales (Mar) 
    26 Apr, Wed
    • 0930 AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q1)
    • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 
    • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
    27 Apr, Thu
    • 1000 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)   
    • 1100 JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)     
    • 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference    
    • 1945 EUR Deposit Facility Rate  
    • 1945 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
    • 2030 EUR ECB Press Conference     
    • 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) 
    • 2030 USD Goods Trade Balance
    • 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) 
    28 Apr, Fri
    • 0930 AUD PPI (YoY) (Q1) 
    • 1630 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q1) 
    • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr)   
    • 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
    • 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Feb)

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