Sunday, April 30, 2017

Dollar Index tested support

After french presidential election, Dollar Index gaped down, tested TLU9 support and move directionless.  98.3 will be the next important support level.
Resistance at TLU9, 99.8, 100.3, TLD6, 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU6, 102.2
Support at TLU7, 98.3, TLD5, 97.3, 96.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 29 Apr 17

BDI lower to 1109 (28 Apr)  from 1195 (21 Apr)
Harpex closed higher at 522.14 (22 Apr) from 516.77 (15 Apr)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed this week.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Wheat
  • Corn (1)
  • Soybeans
  • Cocoa (1)
  • Soybean Oil
  • Coffee
  • Sugar
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Feeder Cattle
Neutral
  • Silver
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 






Indices Performance Chart - 29 Apr 17

Asia and US closed higher while Europe closed mixed.  Nasdaq and Russell created a historic high.
Dollar Index gapped down, tested support and move directionless.
Harpex continue to climb higher.
Wed to Fri US will release important data.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets closed higher for the week.
Nasdaq created and closed at historic high.
Russell created a historic high but failed to closed at historic high.  Russell need to continue to stay above 1,389 for another 2 weeks and to close with +roc in the weekly chart for a breakout.
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data release on Wed.  Thu 0200 (SGT) will have  FOMC Statement and Fed Interest Rate Decision.  Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate  data will be on Fri.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 21,099, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU5, 20,756, TLU11, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669, 18,557, TLU1, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,392, TLU5, TLU1,2,522
Potential support around 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU3, 6,261
Potential support around 5,538, TLU7, TLU5, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,389, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

    01 May, Mon
    • UK, China, Hong Kong, Germany, France public holiday
    • 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   
    02 May, Tue
    • 0820 JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech  
    • 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)  
    • 1230 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (May)
    • 1230 AUD RBA Rate Statement
    • 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
    • 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 
    03 May, Wed
    • Japan, Hong Kong public holiday
    • 0645 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)
    • 1600 EUR German Unemployment Change (Apr) 
    • 1630 GBP Construction PMI (Apr) 
    • 1700 EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q1)
    • 2015 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) 
    • 2200 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 
    • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
    04 May, Thu
    • Japan public holiday
    • 0200 USD FOMC Statement
    • 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 
    • 1630 GBP Services PMI (Apr) 
    05 May, Fri
    • Japan public holiday
    • 0425 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
    • 0830 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement 
    • 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
    • 2030 USD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 
    • 2030 CAD Employment Change (Apr)  
    • 2200 CAD Ivey PMI (Apr)  

    Sunday, April 23, 2017

    Dollar Index tested trend support

    Dollar Index tested TLU9 support and closed above it.  If TLU9 is broken, 98.3 will be the next support level.
    Resistance at 100.3, TLD6, 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU6, 102.2
    Support at 99.8, TLU9, TLD5, TLU7, 98.3, 97.3, 96.3


    USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

    Weekly chart with 50 SMA

    Commodities Update - 22 Apr 17

    BDI lower to 1195 (21 Apr) from 1296 (13 Apr)
    Harpex closed at 516 )15 Apr) from 513.79 (08 Apr)

    Summary
    Most commodities closed lower this week.

    COT 
    Download Commodities COT
    Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
    Down Trend

    • Soybeans
    • Cocoa (1)
    • Soybean Oil
    • Sugar
    Neutral
    • Corn
    • Wheat
    Up Trend
    • None

    Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
    Up Trend

    • Feeder Cattle
    • Silver
    Neutral
    • None
    Down Trend
    • None

    Note
    (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
    (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
    (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
    Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 






    Indices Performance Chart - 22 Apr 17

    Most markets closed lower while US markets closed higher.  
    Dollar Index tested trend support and closed above it.
    Closely watch event will be French presidential election.  The first round will take place on 23 Apr (Sun) follow by the second round on 7 May (Sun) between top 2 candidates. 
    Economy data to watch out for the week are BoJ Press conference, Monetary Policy Statement, ECB Press Conference on Thu (27 Apr).  On Fri, UK, US and Canada will be reporting their GDP data.
    Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
    UT
    • None
    Neutral
    • None
    DT
    • None

    Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

    UT
    • Dow
    Neutral
    • None
    DT
    • None
    Note
    (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
    (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
    (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
    Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


    US markets end the week higher except for Dow.
    The trading range is rather limited.  1,389 is a very strong resistance for Russell,  if can close above it for the 2-3 bar (in the weekly chart) with +roc, it will be a positive sign. Looking at the other angle using COT, the probability of downside is higher.

    Dow
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
    Potential support around TLU11, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669, 18,557, TLU1, 18,367

    S&P
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522
    Potential support around 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

    Nasdaq
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around TLU7, TLU5, 5,538, TLU3
    Potential support around TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

    Russell
    Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 1,389, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
    Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

    Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

      24 Apr, Mon
      • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr)
      25 Apr, Tue
      • New Zealand and Australia Holiday.
      • 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)
      • 2200 USD New Home Sales (Mar) 
      26 Apr, Wed
      • 0930 AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q1)
      • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 
      • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
      27 Apr, Thu
      • 1000 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)   
      • 1100 JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)     
      • 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference    
      • 1945 EUR Deposit Facility Rate  
      • 1945 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
      • 2030 EUR ECB Press Conference     
      • 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) 
      • 2030 USD Goods Trade Balance
      • 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) 
      28 Apr, Fri
      • 0930 AUD PPI (YoY) (Q1) 
      • 1630 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q1) 
      • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr)   
      • 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
      • 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Feb)

      Sunday, April 16, 2017

      Dollar Index tested resistance and support

      Dollar Index tested TLD6 resistance, pull back testing 100.3 support for 2 consecutive days and closed above it.  TLU9 will be a strong support.
      Break and close below it for 2-3 days will have more downside potential.
      Resistance at TLD6, 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU6, 102.2
      Support at 100.3, 99.8, TLU9, TLD5, TLU7, 98.3, 97.3, 96.3



      USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)


      Weekly chart with 50 SMA

      Commodities Update - 14 Apr 17

      BDI closed at 1296 (13 Apr) from 1223 (07 Apr)
      Harpex broke 500 marks, closed at 513.79 (08 Apr) from 499.48 (01 Apr)

      Summary
      Grains closed higher, Coffee and Sugar closed lower while the rest closed mixed.

      COT 
      Download Commodities COT

      Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
      Down Trend

      • Soybeans
      • Cocoa (1)
      • Soybean Oil
      • Sugar
      Neutral
      • None
      Up Trend
      • Corn

      Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
      Up Trend

      • Feeder Cattle
      • Silver
      Neutral
      • None
      Down Trend
      • None

      Note
      (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
      (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
      (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
      Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 








      Indices Performance Chart - 14 Apr 17

      Almost all markets closed lower due to shorter trading week and geopolitical reasons. US markets continue with consolidation.
      Dollar Index pulls back after testing resistance. It tested 100.3 support and closed above it.
      Harpex broke 500 marks.

      Be caution on profit taking after good corporate earning result announcement.


      Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
      UT
      • None
      Neutral
      • None
      DT
      • None

      Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

      UT
      • None
      Neutral
      • None
      DT
      • None

      Note
      (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
      (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
      (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
      Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


      Despite US markets broke hlf on the weekly chart (except for Russell), US markets are consolidating within the expected range.





      Dow
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
      Potential support around TLU11, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669, 18,557, TLU1, 18,367

      S&P
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522
      Potential support around 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

      Nasdaq
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around TLU4, TLU7, TLU5, 5,538, TLU3
      Potential support around 5,237, TLU1, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

      Russell
      Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 1,389, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
      Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

      Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

        17 Apr, Mon
        • Australia, Hong Kong, Germany, France, UK public holiday
        • 1000 CNY GDP (YoY) (Q1)
        • 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) 
        18 Apr, Tue
        • 0830 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
        • 2030 USD Building Permits (Mar)
        19 Apr, Wed
        • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Mar)
        • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
        20 Apr, Thu
        • 0645 NZD CPI (QoQ) (Q1) 
        • 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) 
        21 Apr, Fri
        • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 
        • 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
        • 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)  
        • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Mar) 

        Sunday, April 9, 2017

        Dollar Index broke 100.3 resistance

        Dollar Index hovered along 100.3 resistance level for few days and rallied on Fri before closing. Need to overcome TLD6 resistance and close above TLD6 for 2-3 days to continue with the bullishness.
        Resistance at TLD6, 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU6, 102.2
        Support at 100.3, 99.8, TLU9, TLD5, TLU7, 98.3, 97.3, 96.3


        USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

        Weekly chart with 50 SMA

        Commodities Update - 08 Apr 17

        After last week BDI closed at 1297 (31 Mar), it pull back this week to 1223 (07 Apr)
        Harpex continue to accelerate more than 10% this week to 499.48 (01 Apr) from 438.94 (25 Mar)

        Summary
        Energy continue to close higher, Grains closed lower while the rest are mixed.

        COT 
        Download Commodities COT

        Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
        Down Trend

        • Cocoa (1)
        • Soybean Oil
        • Sugar
        Neutral
        • Corn
        Up Trend
        • None

        Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
        Up Trend

        • Silver
        Neutral
        • Feeder Cattle
        Down Trend
        • None

        Note
        (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
        (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
        (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
        Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 








        Indices Performance Chart - 08 Apr 17

        Asia closed mixed while most of the Europe and US closed higher for the week.
        US markets are directionless for past 2 weeks.  US markets are directionless for past 2 weeks.  Moving forward, the corporate earning result will be one of the keys to move the market.  Interestingly in COT data show that retailers more long positions than short. 
        Dollar Index broke 100.3 resistance level on Fri.  
        Harpex accelerated sharply by more than 10%.

        Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
        UT
        • None
        Neutral
        • None
        DT
        • None

        Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

        UT
        • None
        Neutral
        • None
        DT
        • None



        Note
        (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
        (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
        (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
        Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


        The weekly chart for Dow, S&P and Nasdaq broke lhf but failed to hold. US markets (except Nasdaq) are moving lower since late Feb and is directionless for past 2 weeks.




        Dow
        Daily UT, Weekly UT
        Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
        Potential support around TLU11, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669, 18,557, TLU1, 18,367

        S&P
        Daily UT, Weekly UT
        Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522
        Potential support around 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

        Nasdaq
        Daily UT, Weekly UT
        Potential resistance around TLU5, 5,538, TLU3
        Potential support around TLU7, TLU4, TLU1, 5,041, 4,960, 4,896, 4,816

        Russell
        Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
        Potential resistance around 1,389, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
        Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

        Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

        13 Apr, Mon
        • No important data
        11 Apr, Tue
        • 0200 USD Fed's Yellen Speech
        • 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Mar) 
        • 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)
        • 2200 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Feb) 
        12 Apr, Wed
        • 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Mar) 
        • 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Feb) 
        • 1630 GBP Claimant Count Change (Mar) 
        • 2200 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
        • 2200 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
        • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
        • 2315 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks 
        13 Apr, Thu
        • 0930 AUD Employment Change (Mar)
        • 1400 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Mar) 
        • 2030 USD PPI (MoM) (Mar)
        14 Apr, Fri
        • Hong Kong, UK, France, Germany Canada, US public holiday
        • 2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Mar)
        • 2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
        • 2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)