Sunday, August 20, 2017

Dollar Index closed above support

Dollar index pierce thru support and rebounded.  In the daily chart, dollar index edging higher.  In the weekly chart, dollar index is consolidating.  Dollar index need to maintain above 93 support for momentum to go higher.
Resistance at 94.0, TLD3, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLU8, 96.3
Support at 93.0, TLD5, TLD2, 92.0



USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 19 Aug 17

BDI broke 1,000 mark from 933 (28 Jul) to 1260 (18 Aug)
Harpex continue to go higher from 470.25 (22 Jul) to 486.66 (12 Aug)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Sugar (1)
  • Cocoa (1)
Neutral
  • Natural Gas (1)
Up Trend
  • Orange Juice

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Rough Rice
Neutral
  • Oats
  • Gold
Down Trend
  • Feeder Cattle

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 19 Aug 17

Most markets closed lower this week.
US markets broke hlf 2 ET while trend had started to turn down.
Dollar Index tested support and rebounded.
BDI broke above 1,000 mark.  Harpex continues to move higher.
Most commodities closed lower.

Not much important data is releasing this week.  


Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • None
Neutral
  • Nasdaq
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets broke hlf 2 ET on the daily charts.   While trend had started to turn down for some.  On the weekly chart, Russell tested 50 SMA. Not much important data to be released by the US this week.  

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU2, 22,027, 22,121, 23,462
Potential support around TLU6, 21,451, TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,450, 2,480, TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,890, 5,952, TLU7, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around TLU3, 5,722, TLU5, TLU4, 5,538, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,389, 1,420, 1,451, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
      21 Aug, Mon
      • No important data
      22 Aug, Tue
      • 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) 
      • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 
      23 Aug, Wed
      • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
      • 2200 USD New Home Sales (Jul) 
      • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
      24 Aug, Thu
      • 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
      • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Jul)
      25 Aug, Fri
      • 1400 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
      • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug) 
      • 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) 

      Sunday, August 6, 2017

      No update of blog on 6 Aug and 13 Aug

      Due to work and personal commitment, no update on the blog for these 2 weeks.

      Here are the COT charts


      Monday, July 31, 2017

      Dollar Index tested support

      Dollar Index rebounded, broke lhf and sell down continues.  It tested 93.0 and TLD2 support.
      Various countries will be reporting their Manufacturing PMI this week.  Watch out for Fri US Nonfarm payroll and unemployment data
      Resistance at TLD5, 94.0, TLD3, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLU8, 96.3
      Support at 93.0, TLD2, 92.0


      USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

      Weekly chart with 50 SMA

      Commodities Update - 29 Jul 17

      BDI closed at 933 (28 Jul) from 964 (20 Jul)
      Harpex surged more than 5% to close at 470.25 (22 Jul) from 445.80 (15 Jul)

      Summary
      Energy and Metals closed higher while soft commodities closed mixed.

      COT 

      Download Commodities COT
      Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
      Down Trend

      • Sugar (1)
      • Orange Juice
      • Natural Gas 
      Neutral
      • Coffee  (1)
      • Cocoa (1)
      • Platinum (1)
      Up Trend
      • None

      Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
      Up Trend

      • Wheat
      • Oats
      • Rough Rice
      Neutral
      • Feeder Cattle
      Down Trend
      • None

      Note
      (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
      (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
      (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
      Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






      Indices Performance Chart - 29 Jul 17

      Most markets closed higher while US markets closed mixed.  Dow created a new historic high.
      Harpex surged 5% in a week.
      Dollar Index rebounded, broke lhf and sell down continues.

      This week various countries will report Manufacturing PMI.  On Fri, US will release Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate data.

      Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
      UT
      • None
      Neutral
      • None
      DT
      • None

      Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

      UT
      • None
      Neutral
      • None
      DT
      • None
      Note
      (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
      (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
      (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

      Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

      US markets closed mixed.  On the weekly chart, Dow broke lhf and created a new historic high. S&P and Nasdaq closed with a small roc.  Russell created new historic high but failed to sustain and closed with a -roc.


      Corporate earning continue to come in, Fri Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate.



      Dow

      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 23,462
      Potential support around TLU6, 21,451, TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968

      S&P
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
      Potential support around 2,450, 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187

      Nasdaq
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around TLU7, 6,261, 6,983
      Potential support around 5,890, TLU3, 5,722, TLU5, TLU4, 5,538, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

      Russell
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
      Potential support around 1,420, 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240

      Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
          31 Jul, Mon
          • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
          • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jul) 
          • 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 
          01 Aug, Tue
          • 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)   
          • 1230 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) 
          • 1230 AUD RBA Rate Statement   
          • 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)   
          • 1555 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jul) 
          • 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 
          • 1700 EUR Europe GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  
          • 2200 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)   
          02 Aug, Wed
          • 0645 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)
          • 1630 GBP Construction PMI (Jul) 
          • 2015 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) 
          • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
          03 Aug, Thu
          • 1630 GBP Services PMI (Jul) 
          • 1900 GBP BoE Inflation Report  
          • 1900 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jul)   
          • 1900 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes     
          • 1930 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks     
          • 2200 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
          04 Aug, Fri
          • 0930 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 
          • 2030 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
          • 2030 USD Unemployment Rate (Jul)   
          • 2030 USD Employment Change (Jul) 
          • 2200 CAD Ivey PMI (Jul)

          Sunday, July 23, 2017

          Dollar Index may have technical rebound

          Dollar Index continues to go lower as expected.  Technical rebound may come soon.  Watch out for FOMC Statement, US Interest rate decision on Thur 0200 Hrs.
          Resistance at TLD5, TLD3, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLU8, 96.3
          Support at 94.0, 93.0, TLD2, 92.0


          USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

          Weekly chart with 50 SMA

          Commodities Update - 22 Jul 17

          BDI closed at 964 (20 Jul) from 900 (14 Jul)
          Harpex closed at 445.80 (15 Jul) from 435.96 (08 Jul)

          Summary
          Most soft commodities and metals closed higher while Energy closed lower.

          COT 
          Download Commodities COT
          Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
          Down Trend

          • Sugar (1)
          • Orange Juice
          • Natural Gas 
          Neutral
          • Coffee  (1)
          • Cocoa (1)
          Up Trend
          • Platinum (1)

          Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
          Up Trend

          • Wheat
          • Oats
          • Rough Rice
          Neutral
          • Feeder Cattle
          Down Trend
          • None

          Note
          (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
          (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
          (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
          Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






          Indices Performance Chart - 22 Jul 17

          Most markets closed mixed.
          US markets closed higher except for Dow.

          Dollar Index continues to go lower and may have technical rebound. 

          Watch out for the corporate earning during this reporting season.  On Thu 0200 Hrs, FOMC Statement and US Interest rate decision.  On Fri, US and Canada will release GDP data. 

          Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
          UT
          • None
          Neutral
          • None
          DT
          • None

          Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

          UT
          • None
          Neutral
          • None
          DT
          • None
          Note
          (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
          (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
          (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

          Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


          US markets closed higher except for Dow on the weekly chart.  On the daily chart, US markets broke hlf on the last day of the week.  
          Corporate earning, Thur FOMC Statement, US Interest rate decision and Fri US GDP are the potential factors to move the markets.




          Dow
          Daily UT, Weekly UT
          Potential resistance around TLU6, 23,462
          Potential support around 21,451, TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968

          S&P
          Daily UT, Weekly UT
          Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
          Potential support around 2,450, 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187

          Nasdaq
          Daily UT, Weekly UT
          Potential resistance around TLU7, 6,261, 6,983
          Potential support around 5,890, TLU3, 5,722, TLU5, TLU4, 5,538, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

          Russell
          Daily UT, Weekly UT
          Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
          Potential support around 1,420, 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240

          Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
            24 Jul, Mon
            • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)    
            • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Jun)
            25 Jul, Tue
            • 0750 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
            • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul) 
            • 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) 
            26 Jul, Wed
            • 0930 AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
            • 1630 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q2) 
            • 2200 USD New Home Sales (Jun)
            • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
            27 Jul, Thu
            • 0200 USD FOMC Statement
            • 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
            • 2030 USD Durable Goods Orders (Jun)
            • 2030 USD Good Trade Balance
            28 Jul, Fri
            • 2000 EUR German CPI (YoY) (Jul)
            • 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (May) 
            • 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

            Sunday, July 16, 2017

            Dollar Index broke hlf

            Dollar Index broke hlf on weekly the chart and closed below 95 on Fri.  No recovery in sight yet.
            Resistance at  Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 95.0, TLU8, 96.3, 97.3, 98.3
            Support at TLD3, TLD5, 94.0, TLD2

            USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

            Weekly chart with 50 SMA

            Commodities Update - 15 Jul 17

            BDI back to 900 (14 Jul) from 822 (07 Jul)
            Harpex lower to 435.96 (08 Jul) from 439.54 (01 Jul)

            Summary
            Most commodities closed higher while Grains closed mixed.

            COT 
            Download Commodities COT
            Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
            Down Trend

            • Sugar (1)
            • Orange Juice
            • Natural Gas 
            Neutral
            • Coffee  (1)
            • Cocoa (1)
            • Platinum
            Up Trend
            • None

            Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
            Up Trend

            • Wheat
            • Oats
            • Rough Rice
            Neutral
            • None
            Down Trend
            • Feeder Cattle

            Note
            (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
            (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
            (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
            Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average