Sunday, October 15, 2017

No update of blog for this week

Due to my godmother had passed away, I will not be updating my blog for this week.


Here are the COT charts 


Download Commodities COT

Sunday, October 8, 2017

Dollar Index closed above 93.0

Dollar Index broke and closed above 93.0.  It also tested 94.0 and TLD3 resistance level.
Watch out for 12 Oct release of FOMC Minutes and ECB President Draghi's Speech.
Resistance at 94.0, TLD3. 95.0, TLU8
Support at 93.0, Trend Channel (Blue), TLD2, 92.0, TLD7, TLD5, 90.6. 89.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 07 Oct 17

BDI rose from 1,356 (29 Sep) to 1,405 (06 Oct)
Harpex continue to close lower for 2nd week from 513.79 (23 Sep) to 506.34 (30 Sep)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee
  • Sugar
  • Corn
Neutral
  • Natural Gas
  • Crude
Up Trend
  • Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Gold
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 07 Oct 17

Asia and US closed higher while Europe closed mixed.
US markets created a historic high.
BDI rose, Harpex pull back.
Dollar Index broke 93 resistance level.

On 12 Oct, FOMC Minutes at 0200 Hrs while ECB President Draghi's Speech at 2230 Hrs.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


US markets created a historic high.  On the weekly chart, Dow and Nasdaq broke lhf.  Russell continues the run-up for 4 consecutive weeks.



Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,847
Potential support around 22,717, TLU11, 22,121, 22,027, TLU6, TLD1, 21,659

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 2,748
Potential support around 2,512, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,261, TLU7, 6,983
Potential support around 6,003, 5,952, 5,890, TLD1, TLU3, TLU5, 5,722,  5,634

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,519, TLU3, TLU5, 
Potential support around TLU1, 1,451, 1,420, 1,389, TLD1, 1,341


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
09 Oct, Mon
  • Canada and Japan holiday.
  • No important data
10 Oct, Tue
  • 1630 GBP UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) 
11 Oct, Wed
  • 2200 USD US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)   
12 Oct, Thu
  • 0200 USD FOMC Minutes*
  • 2030 USD US PPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 2230 EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech
  • 2300 USD Crude Oil Inventories
13 Sep, Fri
  • 2030 USD US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 2030 USD US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 2030 USD US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 

Sunday, October 1, 2017

Dollar Index broke and close above 92.0

Dollar Index broke 92.0 and 93.0.  It failed to close above 93.0.
On the weekly chart, it broke lhf and outside day 08 Sep.
Need to stay above 93.0 for more upside.
Resistance at 93.0, 94.0, TLD3. 95.0
Support at Trend Channel (Blue), TLD2, 92.0, TLD7, TLD5, 90.6. 89.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 30 Sep 17

BDI fell sharply from 1,502 (22 Sep) to 1,356 (29 Sep)
Harpex closed lower from 517.07 (16 Sep) to 513.79 (23 Sep)

Summary
Commodities continue to close mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee
  • Sugar
  • Corn
Neutral
  • Natural Gas
Up Trend
  • Cocoa
  • Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Gold
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 30 Sep 17

Europe and US closed higher while most Asia closed lower.
US markets closed higher.  Russell created the new historic high.
BDI and Harpex pull back.
Dollar Index broke and closed above 92.  Need to stay above 93.0 for more upside.

China is on a long holiday. Fed Chair Yellen Speaks on Thu, US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate on Fri.
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


US markets closed higher.  On the weekly chart, Dow, S&P and Nasdaq broke pwl and recovered with closed with a +roc.  Russell rallied and created the new historic high.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 22,717, 24,847
Potential support around TLU11, 22,121, 22,027, TLU6, TLD1, 21,659

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 2,748
Potential support around 2,512, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,003, 6,261, TLU7, 6,983
Potential support around 5,952, 5,890, TLD1, TLU3, TLU5, 5,722,  5,634

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,519, TLU3, TLU5, 
Potential support around TLU1, 1,451, 1,420, 1,389, TLD1, 1,341


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

02 Oct, Mon
  • China, Hong Kong and India holiday.
  • 0750 JPY Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3)
  • 0750 JPY Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3) 
  • 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
  • 1630 GBP UK Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
  • 2200 USD US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
03 Oct, Tue
  • China and Germany holiday.
  • 1130 AUD Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
  • 1130 AUD Australia RBA Rate Statement
  • 1630 GBP UK Construction PMI (Sep)
04 Oct, Wed
  • China holiday.
  • 2015 USD US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
  • 2200 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
05 Oct, Thu
  • China and Hong Kong holiday
  • 0315 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • 0830 AUD Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
  • 1930 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
29 Sep, Fri
  • China holiday
  • 2030 USD US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
  • 2030 USD US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
  • 2030 CAD Canada Employment Change (Sep) 
  • 2200 CAD Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Dollar Index failed to close above 92.0 again

This is second week Dollar Index tested and failed to close above 92.0.  This is the second week of an inside day since 8 Sep on the weekly chart.  Potential explosive movement coming.
Resistance at 92.0, TLD2, 93.0, TLD3
Support at TLD7, TLD5, 90.6. 89.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 23 Sep 17

BDI rallied from 1,385 (15 Sep) to 1,502 (22 Sep)
Harpex closed higher from 515.88 (09 Sep) to 517.07 (16 Sep)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Corn
Neutral
  • Natural Gas
Up Trend
  • Cocoa (1)
  • Coffee
  • Sugar (1)
  • Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Feeder Cattle
  • Rough Rice
  • Heating Oil
  • Gold
  • Palladium
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 23 Sep 17

Europe closed higher while Asia and US closed mixed.
On the weekly chart, Nasdaq broke hlf and closed with -roc while Russell closed higher almost tested historic high.

BDI rallied and broke 1500 mark while Harpex continues to climb higher.


This is second week Dollar Index tested and failed to close above 92.0.  This is the second week of an inside day since 8 Sep on the weekly chart. 




Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US markets closed mixed.  On the weekly chart, Nasdaq broke hlf and closed with -roc while Russell closed higher almost tested historic high.


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 22,717, 24,847
Potential support around TLU11, 22,121, 22,027, TLU6, TLD1, 21,659

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,512, TLU1, 2,748
Potential support around 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 5,952, 6,261, TLU7, 6,983
Potential support around 5,890, TLD1, TLU3, TLU5, 5,722,  5,634

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,451, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,420, 1,389, TLD1, 1,341


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
      25 Aug, Mon
      • 0200 EUR German Federal Election
      • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep)
      26 Sep, Tue
      • 0750 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
      • 1800 GBP UK Inflation Report Hearings
      • 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)
      • 2200 USD New Home Sales (Aug) 
      27 Sep, Wed
      • 1630 GBP UK GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
      • 2030 USD US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) 
      • 2200 USD US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)
      • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
      28 Sep, Thu
      • 0400 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
      • 2030 USD US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
      29 Sep, Fri
      • 1600 EUR German Unemployment Change (Sep)
      • 1800 EUR Europe CPI (YoY) (Sep) 
      • 2030 CAD Canada GDP (MoM) (Jul
      30 Sep, Sat
      • 0900 CNY China Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  
      • 0945 CNY China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep)   

      Sunday, September 17, 2017

      Dollar Index failed to close above 92

      Dollar index closed with an inside day on the weekly chart. 
      Dollar index broke up 92 resistance but failed to hold and closed below.  Watch out for Thu monring Fed Interest Rate Decision 
      Resistance at TLD5, TLD7, 92.0, TLD2, 93.0, TLD3
      Support at TLD5, 90.6. 89.3

      USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

      Weekly chart with 50 SMA

      Commodities Update - 16 Sep 17

      BDI closed at 1385 (15 Sep)
      Harpex closed at 515.88 (09 Sep)

      Summary
      Energy, Coffee and Sugar closed higher.  Metals closed lower while the rest closed mixed.
      BDI and Harpex continue to climb up steadily.

      COT 
      Download Commodities COT
      Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
      Down Trend

      • None
      Neutral
      • None
      Up Trend
      • Cocoa (1)
      • Coffee
      • Sugar (1)
      • Crude

      Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
      Up Trend

      • Feeder Cattle
      • Rough Rice
      • Copper
      • Gold
      • Palladium
      Neutral
      • None
      Down Trend
      • None

      Note
      (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
      (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
      (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
      Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






      Indices Performance Chart - 16 Sep 17

      US, Japan and Europe closed higher while Asia closed lower.
      Dow and S&P created a new historic high.
      BDI and Harpex continue to climb up steadily.
      Dollar Index broke up 92 but failed to hold when closing.

      Important event on Thu (21 Sep) 0200 Hrs, Fed Interest Rate Decision followed by FOMC Press conference at 0230 Hrs.

      Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
      UT
      • Nasdaq
      Neutral
      • None
      DT
      • None

      Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

      UT
      • Dow
      Neutral
      • None
      DT
      • None
      Note
      (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
      (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
      (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal

      Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

      US markets (except for Russell) broke lhf.  Dow and S&P created a new historic high.  COT show mixed sentimental. 

      Dow
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 22,717, 24,847
      Potential support around TLU11, 22,121, 22,027, TLU6, TLD1, 21,659

      S&P
      Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 2,512, TLU1, 2,748
      Potential support around 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

      Nasdaq
      Daily UT, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 6,261, TLU7, 6,983
      Potential support around 5,952, 5,890, TLU3, TLU5, 5,722,  5,634

      Russell
      Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
      Potential resistance around 1,451, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
      Potential support around 1,420, 1,389, TLD1, 1,341


      Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
          21 Aug, Mon
          • Japan Holiday
          • 1700 EUR Europe CPI (YoY)
          19 Sep, Tue
          • 0930 AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes 
          • 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep)
          • 2030 USD US Building Permits (Aug) 
          20 Sep, Wed
          • 1500 EUR Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting 
          • 1630 GBP UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug
          • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Aug)
          • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
          21 Sep, Thu
          • 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
          • 0230 USD FOMC Press conference 
          • 0645 NZD New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q2
          • 1000 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 
          • 1000 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 
          • 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference 
          • 2030 USD US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)
          22 Sep, Fri
          • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
          • 2030 CAD Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)  
          • 2030 CAD Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)