Sunday, September 25, 2016

Dollar Index closed lower

Dollar Index closed lower after last week broke out. Need to continue to stay above TLD9 for more upside.
Resistance at 96.3, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU7, TLD2, TLD3, 97.3
Support at TLD9, 95.0, TLU9, TLU8, TLD8,  94.0, 93.3, TLD7

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 24 Sep 16

BDI rallied to 940 (23 Sep) from 800 (16 Sep)
Harpex continue to go lower from 330.99 (10 Sep) to 328.50 (17 Sep)

Summary
Most metals and energy closed higher while soft commodities closed mixed.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Cocoa (1)
  • Wheat
  • Corn
  • Oats
  • Rough Rice
  • Natural Gas
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Coffee
  • Sugar
  • Soybean Oil
Neutral
  • Cotton
Down Trend
  • Silver

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 24 Sep 16

Most markets managed to closed with a positive note.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
  • None (US markets buying interest dropped below 70)
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets broke lhf in weekly chart.  Nasdaq hit new high and Russell testing recent high.  Not much important data for this week.


Dow
Daily DT, Weekly UT
A new weekly diff is created.  Need to maintain above TLU11 for more upside.
Potential resistance around 18,367, 18,557, 18,669, TLU4
Potential support around 18,189, TLD5, TLU11, 17,829, 17,600, 17,271, TLD3, 17,083

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
A new weekly diff is formed.  Need to maintain above TLU5 for more upside.
Potential resistance around 2,187, 2,285
Potential support around 2,161, TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116, TLU5, 2,102, 2,081

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Managed to break and closed above Mar 2000 historic high. Need to close above Mar 2000 historic high for another week in order to maintain the bullishness.
Potential resistance around  TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,816 (Historic high @ Mar 2000), 4,769, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Need to maintain above TLU2 for more upside.
Potential resistance around TLU5, 1,259(4), 1,274, 1,287
Potential support around 1,240, 1,213, TLU2, 1,185, 1,164, 1,137

Key event to watch out (SG Time)
26 Sep, Mon
  • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep)
  • 1730 CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speech
  • 2200 USD New Home Sales (Aug)
27 Sep, Tue
  • 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) 
28 Sep, Wed
  • 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) 
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
29 Sep, Thu
  • 1555 EUR German Unemployment Change (Sep) 
  • 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) 
30 Sep, Fri
  • 0400 USD Yellen addresses minority banking conference 
  • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (SEP)
  • 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
  • 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
  • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Sep) 
  • 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Jul)

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Dollar Index broke out

Dollar Index broke out and closed above the symmetrical triangle.  In the weekly chart, it also broke lhf.  Need to maintain above TLD9 for any pull back.
Resistance at 96.3, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU7, TLD2, TLD3, 97.3
Support at TLD9, 95.0, TLU9, TLU8, TLD8,  94.0, 93.3, TLD7

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 17 Sep 16

BDI closed at 800 (16 Sep) from 804 (09 Sep)
Harpex down further 330.99 (10 Sep) from 331.40

Summary
Commodities closed mixed.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Cocoa (1)
  • Wheat
  • Corn
  • Oats
  • Rough Rice
  • Natural Gas
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
Neutral
  • Heating Oil
Down Trend
  • Silver

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average







Indices Performance Chart - 17 Sep 16

Most markets continue to close lower.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
  • None (US markets buying interest dropped below 70)
Pretty sharp rebound on buying interest especially on DOW and Nasdaq.  
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets recovered some losses on Mon after that trading directionless except for Nasdaq testing Mar 2000 historic high again.  US dollar index strengthened on Fri with better than expected CPI that this may increase the probability of Fed increase the interest rate.  With sharp increased with COT buying interest, expect volatility to continue in the short term before stabilising down.  The key event to watch out for will be Thu SGT 0200, FOMC Statement, US interest rate decision and Fed Yellen will be speaking at SGT 0230.


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Recovered some losses on Mon and trade directionless for the rest of the week.  A new diff is formed.  Need to maintain above TLU11 for more upside.
Potential resistance around 18,189, 18,367, 18,638, TLU4
Potential support around TLD5, TLU11, 17,829, 17,600, 17,271, TLD3, 17,083

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Similar to DOW.  Need to maintain above TLU5 for more upside.
Potential resistance around TLU4, 2,161, 2178, 2285 
Potential support around 2,137, 2,129, 2,116, TLU5, 2,102, 2,081, TLD3, 2,061, 2,045

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Recovered strongly and tested Mar 2000 historic high once again.
Potential resistance around  TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,682, 4,722, 4,769, 4,816 (Historic high @ Mar 2000), 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Similar to DOW.  Need to maintain above TLU2 for more upside.
Potential resistance around 1,240, TLU5, 1,259(4), 1,274, 1,287
Potential support around 1,213, TLU2, 1,185, 1,164, 1,137

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

19 Sep, Mon
  • Japan holiday
  • No important data
20 Sep, Tue
  • 0930 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes 
  • 2030 USD Building Permits (Aug) 
21 Sep, Wed
  • 0030 CAD Bank of Canada's Poloz Speech
  • 1100 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)           
  • 1430 JPY BoJ Press Conference
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
22 Sep, Thu
  • Japan holiday
  • 0200 USD FOMC Economic Projections
  • 0200 USD FOMC Statement
  • 0200 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 0230 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • 0500 NZD Interest Rate Decision
  • 0500 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
  • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Aug) 
23 Sep, Fri
  • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Sep)   
  • 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)
  • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 

Sunday, September 11, 2016

Dollar Index formed symmetical triangle

Dollar Index broke hlf in the weekly chart. Resisted at TLD9. A symmetrical triangle is formed, TLD9 and TLU9.
Resistance at TLD9, 96.3, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU7, TLD2, TLD3, 97.3
Support at 95.0, TLU9, TLU8, TLD8,  94.0, 93.3, TLD7

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 10 Sep 16

BDI broke 800 mark to close at 804 (09 Sep) from 720 (02 Sep)
Harpex slumped down to 331.40  (03 Sep) from 337.20 (27 Aug)

Summary
Most commodities closed higher.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 
  • Cocoa
  • Wheat (1)
  • Corn
  • Oats
  • Rough Rice
  • Copper
  • Natural Gas
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Up Trend 
  • Coffee
  • Soybean Oil
  • Cotton
  • Gold
Neutral 
  • Silver
Down Trend 
  • Heating Oil
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average







Indices Performance Chart - 10 Sep 16

Most markets pull back this week, some as much as 3%.


Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
  • None (US markets buying interest dropped below 70)

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets slumped more than 2% on Fri after the comments made by key Fed officials worried markets Fed may raise interest rates this month.  DOW, S&P, Nasdaq and Russell formed outside day on the weekly chart.  May see technical rebound and weakness will continue in the short term.



Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Broke down and closed below consolidation range 18,161
Potential resistance around TLD5, 18,189, 18,367, 18,638, TLU4
Potential support around 17,829, 17,600, 17,271, TLD3, 17,083

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Broke down and closed below consolidation range 2,129
Potential resistance around 2,129, 2,137, TLU4, 2,161, 2178, 2285 
Potential support around 2,116, 2,102, 2,081, TLD3, 2,061, 2,045

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,682, 4,722, 4,769, 4,816 (Historic high @ Mar 2000), TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around  4,640, 4,537, TLU2, 4,347, TLD3

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,240, TLU5, 1,259(4), 1,274, 1,287
Potential support around 1,213, TLU2, 1,185, 1,164, 1,137

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
12 Sep, Mon
  • No important data
13 Sep, Tue
  • India Holiday
  • 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)
  • 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Aug)
  • 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep) 
14 Sep, Wed
  • 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jul) 
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
15 Sep, Thu
  • China holiday
  • 0645 NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 0930 AUD Employment Change (Aug) 
  • 1530 CHF Interest Rate Decision
  • 1630 EUR Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
  • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Aug)
  • 1900 GBP Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
  • 2030 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)   
  • 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) 
  • 2030 USD PPI (MoM) (Aug) 
  • 2030 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 
16 Sep, Fri
  • China, Hong Kong holiday
  • 2030 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)

Sunday, September 4, 2016

Dollar Index continue to recover

Dollar Index broke lhf in weekly chart but remained weak until it manage to close within the UT channel
Resistance at Trend Channel (Blue), TLD9, 96.3, TLU7, TLD2, TLD3, 97.3
Support at 95.0, TLU9, TLU8, TLD8,  94.0, 93.3, TLD7

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 03 Sep 16

No change for BDI this week at 720 (02 Sep)
Harpex continues to lower to 337.20 (27 Aug) from 341.76 (20 Aug) 

Summary
Most commodities closed lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 
  • Wheat
  • Corn
  • Oats
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend 
  • Cocoa
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
  • Up Trend 
  • Coffee
  • Silver
Neutral 
  • None
Down Trend 
  • Heating Oil
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 03 Sep 16

Most markets closed higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
  • None (US markets buying interest dropped below 70)
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

US markets created 1 month low on Thu with worse than expected US ISM Manufacturing PMI data. Fri Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate were below expectation, these bring some cheers to traders that higher probability of US rate hike will not be that soon.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Consolidating between 18,161 and 186,38
Potential resistance around 18,638, TLU4, TLU2, 19,440, TLU5, TLU6
Potential support around 18,367, 18,189, TLD5, 17,829, 17,600

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Correction of last week: "Directionless, forming outside day on 3 consecutive bar on the weekly chart.  Big movement may be coming." is incorrect, the chart is not up to date.
Consolidating between 2,189 and 2,129
Potential resistance around 2285
Potential support around 2178, 2,137, TLU4, 2,129, 2,116, 2,102

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Continue rejection above 4,816
Potential resistance around 4,816 (Historic high @ Mar 2000), TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,769, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537, TLD3, TLU2, 4,347

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,259(4), 1,274, 1,287, 1,296, TLU1
Potential support around 1,240, 1,213, TLU5, TLU2, 1,185, 1,164, 1,137

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
05 Sep, Mon
  • India, US, Canada holiday
  • 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
  • 1630 GBP Services PMI (Aug) 
06 Sep, Tue
  • 1230 AUD Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 
  • 1230 AUD RBA Rate Statement     
  • 2200 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
07 Sep, Wed
  • 0930 AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 1630 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul)  
  • 2200 CAD Interest Rate Decision 
  • 2200 CAD Ivey PMI (Aug) 
08 Sep, Thu
  • 0750 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  
  • 1104 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Aug) 
  • 1945 EUR Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 
  • 2030 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks     
  • 2300 USD Crude Oil Inventories
09 Sep, Fri
  • 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Aug) 
  • 2030 CAD Employment Change (Aug)