Sunday, February 28, 2016

Dollar Index broke 97.3

Dollar Index broke lhf twice in a week and formed outside day bar on Fri.  98.3 remained to be a strong resistance.  If can close above 98.3, may see dollar index cover 3 Feb bar.
Resistance at  98.3, TLD2, TLU5, 99.8, 100.3
Support at TLU2, 97.3, 96.3, TLD1, 94.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 27 Feb 16

BDI continue to claw higher from 315 (19 Feb) to 327 (26 Feb)
Harpex also trying to recover from recent low 363.3 (13 Feb) to 364.13 (20 Feb)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 
  • US Cocoa
  • Coffee Arabica
  • Oats
  • Rough Rice
  • Wheat (1)
  • Soybean Meal (1)
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Cotton
  • Lumber
  • Palladium
Neutral
  • Copper
Up Trend 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 
  • Gold
  • Silver
Neutral 
  • None
Down Trend 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average








Indices short term support and resistance


Australia
Daily DT, Weekly DT
After sell down on Tue, became directionless, forming inside day for 3 days and supported by 4,833.  Potential explosive movement may be coming.
Potential resistance around TLU6, TLU4, TLD3, 5,025, TLU3, 5,138, TLD4, TLD5, 5,266
Potential support around  4,833, TLD1, 4,696, 4,601, 4,351

Japan 
Daily DT, Weekly DT
In consolidation mode for 2 weeks.  Trying to break out but not convincing enough.  COT buying interest continue in the extreme region.
Potential resistance around TLU4, 16,581, TLD3, 16,896, 17,328,  17,890
Potential support around TLU5, 15,418, TLD2, 14,366, 13,843, 13,315, 12,411


Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly DT 
Back in consolidation range.  If can continue to close above TLD2 for 2-3 days, will see more upside to challenge TLD4
Potential resistance around 20,011, TLD4, TLU2, 21,080, 21,682
Potential support around TLD2, 19,073, TLD1, TLU3, 18,051, 16,648, TLD3, 14,958, 13,819

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly DT 
Similiar to HK, back in consolidation range.  New diff is formed and closed below diff.  -ve sentiment unless can break and close above 8,637 for 2-3 days.
Potential resistance around 8,102, TLD2, 8,637, 9,006, TLD3, 9,195
Potential support around TLU3, TLD1, 6,727, 5,939, 4,990

UK
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
New diff is created and daily trend from DT to Neutral.  Need to continue to close above TLD2 for support and overcome 6,125 for more upside
Potential resistance around 6,125, 6,297, 6,429, TLU2, 6,578
Potential support around 6,070, TLD1, TLD3, 6,010, TLD2, 5,894, TLU1, 5,768, 5,637

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly DT
A new diff is formed.  Still watching 9,924 level for potential turn to bullish
Potential resistance around 9,679, TLU1, TLU2, 9,924, 10,189, TLD2, 10,653
Potential support around 9,468, 9,216, 8,928, TLD1, 8,758

India
Daily DT, Weekly DT
A new diff is formed.  Resisted at TLD2.  Need to close above TLD2 for 2-3 days for more upside.
Potential resistance around TLD2, 7,216, 7,417, 7,538, TLD3, 7,682
Potential support around 6,887, 6,695, 6,307, TLU1

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
29 Feb, Mon
  • 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Feb) 
  • 2300 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan)  
01 Mar, Tue
  • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
  • 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb)   
  • 1130 AUD Interest Rate Decision (Mar) 
  • 1655 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
  • 1655 EUR German Unemployment Change (Feb) 
  • 1730 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
  • 2130 CAD GDP (MoM) (Dec) 
  • 2300 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
02 Mar, Wed
  • 0830 AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)  
  • 0830 AUD GDP (YoY) (Q4)
  • 1730 GBP Construction PMI (Feb)  
  • 2115 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) 
  • 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
03 Mar, Thu
  • 1730 GBP Services PMI (Feb) 
  • 2300 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
04 Mar, Fri
  • 0830 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 
  • 2130 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
  • 2130 USD Unemployment Rate (Feb)  
  • 2300 CAD Ivey PMI (Feb)  

Indices Performance Chart - 27 Feb 16

Markets closed with a mixed this week.  Asia closed lower, mixed in Europe while US markets closed higher.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • DOW (1) (decreased for 1st week)
  • S&P (increased for 1st week)
  • Nasdaq (1) (decreased for 1st week)
  • Russell (1) (increased for 1st week)

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal 
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average  

US markets (except Nasdaq) broke recent high and closed with a -roc (except Russell).  A new diff was formed.  As long as don't closed below diff for more than 3 days, will see more upside.
Next week will have few important data especially on Fri, NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) and unemployment rate.


Dow
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 16,745, 17,083, 17,271, TLD1, TLD2, 17,600
Potential support around 16,503, 16,246, TLD3, 15,851, TLU3, TLU10, 15,376, 14,812

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,973, 1,996, 2,028, 2,045, 2,061
Potential support around TLD2, 1,930, TLU2, 1,886, TLD5, TLD1, 1,820

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 4,271, 4,347, TLD2, 4,537, TLU1, TLU6, 4,640
Potential support around TLU2, 4,193, 4,089, TLD3, 3,956

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,049, 1,082, TLD1, TLD3, 1,114,
Potential support around 1,009, TLD2, TLU4, TLD4, 951, 899

BDI vs Harpex

Harpex will be one of the shipping index that I will be monitoring
Below is the summary BDI vs Harpex



Sunday, February 21, 2016

Silver COT selling interest at extreme


Silver COT selling interest at extreme while Gold buying interest decreased sharply.
COT raw data for Silver show an increased of short positions for Processor and decreased for long positions  while COT raw data for Gold show no of short positions for Processor and Swap Dealer increased much more than long positions

Precious metal is a safe heaven for traders and investors.  Silver is in selling extreme region, will Gold follow?  From the above chart, there is a high probability.  Traders may be in the process of moving their fund out from precious metal as safe heaven and re-position to stock markets?  Since COT for US markets and Nikkei are at or near to buying extreme



From the above weekly chart, Gold and silver had broke out from the DT channel.  To ride the wave down, need to wait more concrete signal to increase the probability of profitable trade. If break down and closed below the week low (last 2nd bar from the right, green arrow) will be a one of the confirmation signal to short.

Dollar Index directionless

Dollar index recovered with small movement on last 4 days of trading with resistance at TLU2.  It formed a inside day on weekly chart and outside day on Fri.  In short term, dollar index look weak.
Resistance at TLU2, 97.3, 98.3, TLD2, TLU5, 99.8
Support at 96.3, TLD1, 94.0, 93.

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 20 Feb 16

BDI recovered above 300 to 315 (19 Feb) from 291 (12 Feb)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower except for Grains edge slightly higher

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend 
  • US Cocoa
  • Coffee Arabica
  • Wheat
  • Oats
  • Soybean Meal (1)
  • Palladium 
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Cotton
Neutral
  • Copper
Up Trend 
  • Lumber

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend 
  • Silver
Neutral 
  • None
Down Trend 
  • Crude
  • Heating Oil

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average








Indices short term support and resistance


Australia
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New weekly diff is formed.  Resisted by TLD3 after running up for 6 trading days.  A pull back before resuming higher will be good.  For more upside, need to close and stay above TLD3 for 2-3 days.
Potential resistance around TLD3, 5,025, TLU3, 5,138, TLD4, TLD5, 5,266
Potential support around  TLU4, TLU6, 4,833, TLD1, 4,696, 4,601, 4,351

Japan 
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New weekly diff is formed. Resisted by TLU4.  Close above TLD3 for 2-3 days is the first sign of possible turning to bullish before can test recent high 17,890.  COT buying interest for Nikkei is at extreme while Yen selling interest is at extreme.  Currently Yen had an inverse relationship with Nikkei.
Potential resistance around TLU4, 16,581, 16,896, TLD3, 17,328,  17,890
Potential support around  TLU5, 15,418, TLD2, 14,366, 13,843, 13,315, 12,411



Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly DT 
New weekly diff is formed. Resisted by TLD2. Technical rebound have managed to cover the gap between 5 and 11 Feb. To continue with the positive momentum, need to overcome and close above TLD2
Potential resistance around  TLD2, 20,011, TLD4, TLU2, 21,080
Potential support around 19,073, TLD1, TLU3, 18,051, 16,648, TLD3, 14,958, 13,819

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly DT 
Similiar to HK, technical rebound covered the gap between 5 and 11 Feb.  New daily and weekly diff is formed.  Need to continue to stay above trend support, TLU3.  To be bullish again, need to break and close above 8,637 for 2-3 days.
Potential resistance around 8,102, 8,637, TLD2, 9,006, 9,195
Potential support around TLU3, TLD1, 6,727, 5,939, 4,990

UK
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New daily and weekly diff is formed.  Continued to rebound, resisted by TLD3.  6,125 is the level to watch if can closed and stay above, potential to be bullish
Potential resistance around TLD2, 6,010, TLD3, TLD1, 6,070, 6,125, 6,297
Potential support around 5,894, TLU1, 5,768, 5,637, TLU3, 5,433

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New weekly diff is formed.  Watching 9,924 level for potential turn to bullish
Potential resistance around 9,468, 9,679, TLU1, TLU2, 9,924, 10,189
Potential support around 9,216, 8,928, TLD1, 8,758, 8,349, 8,087

India
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New daily and weekly diff is formed.  Tested DT lower channel and rebounded.  If can continue to stay above TLD2, may see testing weekly Diff RL.
Potential resistance around 7,216, 7,417, 7,538, TLD3, 7,682
Potential support around TLD2, 6,887, 6,695, 6,307, TLU1

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
22 Feb, Mon
  • 1630 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
23 Feb, Tue
  • 1500 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)  
  • 1700 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Feb) 
  • 1800 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  • 2300 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)   
  • 2300 USD Existing Home Sales (Jan)   
24 Feb, Wed
  • 2300 USD New Home Sales (Jan)   
  • 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
25 Feb, Thu
  • 1730 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q4) 
  • 1730 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
  • 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jan) 
  • 2130 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan) 
26 Feb, Fri
  • 2130 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 

Indices Performance Chart - 20 Feb 16

Markets rebounded after few weeks of selling.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • DOW (1) (increased for 1st week)
  • S&P (decreased for 3rd week)
  • Nasdaq (1) (increased for few weeks)
  • Russell (1) (decreased for 1st week)


Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal 
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average  

US markets rebounded, broke lhf in weekly chart and broke short term trend resistance.  New weekly diff is formed.  If can break and close above Jan high for 2-3 weeks, the worst may be over for now.


Dow
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around  16,503, 16,745, 17,083, 17,271
Potential support around 16,246, TLD3, 15,851, TLU3, TLU10, 15,376, 14,812

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLU2, 1,930, TLD2, 1,973, 1,996, 2,028
Potential support around 1,886, TLD5, TLD1, 1,820, TLU3, 1,737

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLU2, 4,193, 4,271, 4,347, TLD2, 4,537
Potential support around 4,089, TLD3, 3,956, TLD1, 3,755, TLU7

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,049, 1,082, TLD1, TLD3, 1,114(1)
Potential support around 1,009, TLD2, TLU4, TLD4, 951, 899

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Dollar Index continue to close lower

This week dollar index closed lower by another 1.1%.   Need to stay above TLD1 for another 2-3 days for more upside else may testing next support level at 94.0
Resistance at 96.3, TLU2, 97.3, 98.3, TLD2, TLU5, 99.8
Support at TLD1, 94.0, 93.3



USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 13 Feb 16

BDI broke down 300 pt to 291 (12 Feb) from 317 (29 Jan)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower except for precious metals

COT
Instruments that show buying interest
(3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee Arabica
  • Wheat
  • Oats
  • Soybeans
  • Soybean Meal (1)
  • Copper
  • Palladium
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Cotton
Neutral
  • Lumber
Up Trend
  • Platinum (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Crude
  • Heating Oil
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices short term support and resistance


Most of the markets had broke recent low.  I will goes for short term trading till break and close above recent high for a period.

Australia
Daily DT, Weekly DT
The sell down continue for last 2 weeks.  Need to continue to stay above TLD1 for support and overcome TLU6 for more short term upside.  To be bullish again, need to break and close recent high 5,074.

Potential resistance around TLU6, TLU4, 5,025, TLD3, TLU3, 5,138, TLD4
Potential support around  4,833, TLD1, 4,696, 4,601, 4,351

Japan
Daily DT, Weekly DT
New Diff is created.  Short term trend resistance at TLD2.  Need to break and close recent high 17,890 for 2-3 days for potential bullish again.  COT buying interest dipped below extreme but still worth to monitor for potential change of trend.

Potential resistance around TLU5, TLD2, TLU4, 16,581, 16,896, 17,328,  17,890
Potential support around  15,418, 14,366, 13,843, 13,315, 12,411

Hong Kong
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Consolidated for weeks and gapped down after long holiday.  Short term resistance at TLU3. Technical rebound may cover the gap between 5 Feb and 11 Feb. To be bullish again, need to break and closed above 19,750.

Potential resistance around TLU3, TLD1, 19,073, TLD2, 20,011, TLU2, TLD4
Potential support around 18,051, 16,648, TLD3, 14,958, 13,819

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Similiar to HK, consolidating and gapped down when open after long holiday.  May try to cover the gap on Mar 2009.  Short term resistance at TLD1.  To be bullish again, need to break and closed above weekly Diff 8,440.

Potential resistance around TLU3, TLD1, 8,102, 8,637, TLD2, 9,006
Potential support around 6,727, 5,939, 4,990

UK
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Broke recent low, new diff is formed.  6,125 is the level to watch if can closed and stay above, potential to be bullish

Potential resistance around 5,768, TLU1, 5,894, TLD2, 6,010, 6,070, 6,125
Potential support around 5,637, TLU3, 5,433, 5,277, 5,139

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Broke recent low, new diff is formed.  Watching 9,924 level for potential turn to bullish

Potential resistance around TLD1, 9,216, 9,468, 9,679, TLU1, TLU2, 9,924
Potential support around  8,928, 8,758, 8,349, 8,087

India
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Pierce through DT channel and closed with small roc, bullish diff pretty extreme when compare to last few months, may see technical rebound in short term

Potential resistance around TLD2, 7,216, 7,417, 7,538
Potential support around 6,887, 6,695, 6,307, TLU1


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
15 Feb, Mon

  • US and Canada holiday
  • 1055 CNY Trade Balance (Jan)
16 Feb, Tue
  • 1730 GBP CPI (YoY) (Jan)
  • 1800 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb) 
17 Feb, Wed
  • 1730 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) 
  • 1730 GBP Claimant Count Change (Jan)
  • 2130 USD Building Permits (Jan)
  • 2130 USD PPI (MoM) (Jan)
18 Feb, Thu
  • 0830 AUD Employment Change (Jan)
  • 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Jan)
  • 2130 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) 
19 Feb, Fri
  • India holiday
  • 0000 USD Crude Oil Inventories  
  • 1730 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)  
  • 2130 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)  
  • 2130 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Jan)
  • 2130 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)

Indices Performance Chart - 13 Feb 16

This week most markets continue to close lower on Yellen take on chance of recession and negative interest rate

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants) UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • DOW (1) (decreased for 1st week)
  • S&P (decreased for 2nd week)
  • Nasdaq (1) (increased for few weeks)
  • Russell (1) (increased for 2nd week)

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 



US markets closed -roc this week except Nasdaq with +roc
S&P, Nasdaq and Russell broke recent low, new diff created and losses was narrowed on Fri closing



Dow
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLD3, 16,246, 16,503, 16,745, 17,083, 17,271
Potential support around 15,581, TLU3, TLU10, 15,376, 14,812

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLD1, 1,886, TLD5, TLU2, 1,930, TLD2, 1,973
Potential support around 1,820, TLU3, 1,737, 1,667

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLD1, 4,089, TLD3, TLU2, 4,193, 4,271
Potential support around 3,956, 3,755, TLU7

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around TLD4, 1,009, TLD2, 1,049, 1,082
Potential support around TLU4, 951, 899

Monday, February 8, 2016

Dollar Index closed 2.6% lower

Broke few support levels, tested 96.3 and rebound to closed the week 2.6% lower.  If TLD1 failed to hold, may see testing 94 level.  If manage to continue to close above 96.3, may see short term rebound.
Resistance at  97.3, 98.3, TLU5, TLU4, 99.8
Support at TLU2, 96.3, TLD1, 94.0, 93.3


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Indices short term support and resistance

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
08 Feb, Mon
  • Singapore, China, Hong Kong, New Zealand holiday
 09 Feb, Tue
  • Singapore, China, Hong Kong holiday
10 Feb, Wed
  • China, Hong Kong holiday
  • 1730 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec)  
  • 2300 USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies     
  • 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories 
11 Feb, Thu
  • China, Japan holiday
12 Feb, Fri
  • China holiday
  • 1500 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
  • 2130 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 
  • 2130 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

Indices Performance Chart - 06 Feb 16

Most markets closed lower this week with more below expectation on US data and worry of further interest rate increase when unemployment rate drop below 5%.

Due to preparation and celebrating Chinese New Year, some sections will be temporary stop for a week

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • DOW (1) (increased for few weeks)
  • S&P (increased for 1st week)
  • Nasdaq (increased for few weeks)
  • Russell (1) (increased  for 1st week)

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal 
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 



US markets closed lower this week.  Nasdaq and Russell broke pwl while DOW and S&P yet to break. Nasdaq was down due to LinkedIn and Tableau results below analysts expectation and grim outlooks that causes other US software companies plunged too.




Dow
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 16,246, 16,503, 16,745, 17,083, 17,271
Potential support around  15581, TLU3, 15,376, 14,812

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around  1,886, TLU2, 1,930, 1,973, TLD2, 1,996
Potential support around TLD1, 1,820, TLU3, 1,737

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 4,089, TLU2, 4,193, 4,271, 4,347
Potential support around TLD1, 3,956, 3,755, TLU7

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly DT
Potential resistance around 1,009, TLD2, 1,049, 1,082, TLD1, 1,114
Potential support around TLU4, 951, 899