Sunday, December 18, 2016

Dollar Index broke lhf

Dollar Index broke lhf and upper band trend channel 
Resistance at 105.3, 109.5, 111.9
Support at Trend Channel (Blue), 101.5, 100.3, TLU6, 99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Taking a short break.

I will be taking a short break till 2017.  Next update will be 9 Jan 2017.

Commodities Update - 17 Dec 16

BDI lower again from 1090 (09 Dec) to 946 (16 Dec)
Harpex remained flat at 314.83 (10 Dec)

Summary
Energy closed higer, metals closed lower, the rest are mixed.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Cocoa
  • Rough Rice
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Crude
  • Heating Oil
  • Copper
  • Cotton
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 







Indices Performance Chart - 17 Dec 16

Asia closed lower, Europe closed higher while US markets (except Russell) closed higher

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Russell
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None


Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

In the weekly chart, US markets closed with small roc.  A new diff is formed on the daily chart and move within the diff.


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU2, 19,440, TLU4, TLU11, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,285, 2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,187, 2,161, TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,896, 4,816, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, 1389, TLU3, 1519
Potential support around TLU1, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
19 Dec, Mon
  • 1100 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • 1400 JPY BoJ Press Conference
  • 1700 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec) 
20 Dec, Tue
  • 0830 AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes
21 Dec, Wed
  • 1655 EUR Germany Unemployment Change
  • 2300 USD Existing Home Sales (Nov)
  • 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories
22 Dec, Thu
  • 0545 NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 1730 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q3)
  • 2130 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)
  • 2130 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 2130 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 2130 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)   
23 Dec, Fri
  • Japan Holiday
  • UK closed early
  • 1730 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q3)
  • 2130 CAD GDP (MoM) (Oct)
  • 2300 USD New Home Sales (MoM)

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Dollar Index closed broke lhf

Dollar Index pull back and broke lhf.  Profit taking may kick in again.
Resistance at Trend Channel (Blue), 105.3, 109.5, 111.9
Support at 101.5, 100.3, TLU6, 99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 10 Dec 16

BDI lower to 1090 (09 Dec) from 1198 (02 Dec)
Harpex lower to 318.83 (03 Dec) from 316.07 (26 Nov)

Summary
Most closed lower except grains closed higher

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Cocoa
Neutral
  • Rough Rice
Up Trend
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Crude
  • Copper
  • Cotton
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Coffee

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 







Indices Performance Chart - 10 Dec 16

Markets closed higher between 1% to 7% 

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • S&P
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


In the weekly chart, US markets (except Nasdaq) broke lhf to continue the run.
Do take partial profit if you went long,

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU2, 19,440, TLU4, TLU11, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,285, 2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,187, 2,161, TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,896, TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,816, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, 1389, TLU3, 1519
Potential support around TLU1, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
12 Dec, Mon
  • No important key event
13 Dec, Tue
  • 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)
  • 1730 GBP CPI (YoY) (Nov)
  • 1800 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec) 
14 Dec, Wed
  • 0750 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)
  • 0750 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q4) 
  • 1730 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct)
  • 1730 GBP Claimant Count Change (Nov)
  • 2015 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks 
  • 2130 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 2130 USD PPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 2130 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories
15 Dec, Thu
  • 0300 USD FOMC Economic Projections
  • 0300 USD FOMC Statement
  • 0300 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 
  • 0545 NZD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 0830 AUD Employment Change (Nov)
  • 1530 CHF Interest Rate Decision  
  • 1630 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Dec)  
  • 1730 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 2000 GBP Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
  • 2000 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes 
  • 2130 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 2130 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)
16 Dec, Fri
  • 0015 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks     
  • 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov) 
  • 2130 USD Building Permits (Nov)

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Dollar Index did a healthy pullback

Dollar Index broke hlf and closed with a negative roc in the weekly chart. Trading within Trend channel, this is a healthy pullback after such a run.
Resistance at 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), 105.3, 109.5, 111.9
Support at 100.3, TLU6, 99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 03 Dec 16

BDI edge higher to 1198 (02 Dec) from 1181 (25 Nov)
Harpex edge lower to 316.07 (26 Nov) to 316.49 (19 Nov)

Summary
Energy closed higher, soft commodities closed lower while the rest are mixed

COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Cocoa
Neutral
  • Rough Rice
Up Trend
  • Natural Gas


Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Crude
  • Copper
Neutral
  • Cotton
Down Trend
  • Coffee

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 







Indices Performance Chart - 03 Dec 16

Markets closed mixed.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • S&P
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 



US markets closed mixed despite better than expected job data.  
In the weekly chart, Dow closed with a doji, Nasdaq and Russell broke hlf while S&P closed with inside day.  Markets are lack of strength to move higher.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 19,440, TLU2, TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU4, TLU11, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367, TLD4, 18,189, 17,829

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, 2,285, 2,522
Potential support around 2,187, 2,161, TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116, 2,102, 2,081

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,816, 4,896, TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU5, 1389
Potential support around 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
05 Dec, Mon
  • 1730 GBP Services PMI (Nov
  • 2300 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
06 Dec, Tue
  • 1130 AUD Interest Rate Decision (Dec)   
  • 2300 CAD Ivey PMI (Nov) 
07 Dec, Wed
  • 0830 AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 173 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct)
  • 2300 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Oct) 
  • 2300 CAD Interest Rate Decision
  • 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories
08 Dec, Thu
  • 0750 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 1038 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Nov)
  • 2045 EUR Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
09 Dec, Fri
  • 0930 CNY CPI (YoY) (Nov)

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

COT Update

COT for US Indices
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

  • S & P
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None



COT for Commodities
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Cocoa
  • Rough Rice
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme 
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Coffee
  • Crude
  • Cotton
  • Copper
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 

Sunday, November 27, 2016

Dollar Index closed with a small roc

Dollar Index closed with a small roc in the weekly chart.  Show some weakness after running up for 2 weeks.
Resistance at 105.3, 109.5, 111.9
Support at 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), 100.3, TLU6, 99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 26 Nov 16

BDI pull back from 1257 (18 Nov) to 1181 (25 Nov)
Harpex lower from 317.32 (12 Nov) to 216.49 (19 Nov)

Summary
Energy closed higher while the rest are mixed

COT
Note: COT is not available yet due to Federal holiday.







Indices Performance Chart - 26 Nov 16

Markets continue to close higher, some closed higher by 3%.

Note: COT is not available yet due to Federal holiday.

US markets broke historic high except Nasdaq.  US GDP data on Tue, Job data on Wed and Fri while ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thu.




Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 19,440, TLU2, TLU5, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around TLU4, TLU11, 18,669, 18,557, 18,367, TLD4, 18,189, 17,829

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,285, 2,522
Potential support around TLU5, 2,187, 2,161, TLU4, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116, 2,102, 2,081

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,896, TLU1, 5,538
Potential support around 4,816, 4,722, 4,682, 4,640, 4,537

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, TLU5, 1389
Potential support around Potential support around 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
28 Nov, Mon
  • No important data
29 Nov, Tue
  • 2130 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 2300 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Nov) 
30 Nov, Wed
  • 1655 EUR German Unemployment Change (Nov)
  • 1800 EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov)
  • 2115 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov) 
  • 2130 CAD GDP (MoM) (Sep)
  • 2300 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
  • 2330 USD Crude Oil Inventories
01 Dec, Thu
  • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
  • 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)   
  • 1655 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
  • 2300 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
02 Dec, Fri
  • 0830 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 1730 GBP Construction PMI (Nov) 
  • 2130 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) 
  • 2130 USD Unemployment Rate (Nov)   
  • 2130 CAD Employment Change (Nov) 

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Dollar Index broke trend channel

Dollar Index continues to rally and broke trend channel support
Profit taking may kick in anytime, buy when pull back
Resistance at 101.5, 105.3, 109.5, 111.9
Above resistance are estimate figures using barchart.com
Support at Trend Channel (Blue), 100.3, TLU6, 99.8, Trend Channel (Blue), 98.3

Using the free charting service from ChartNexus can view for a period 3 years, therefore to obtain the resistance level, will need to fall back to another service provider as a reference guide.
Zoom in for the period 1997 to 2004

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Various pairs near to the resistance and support level