Sunday, August 30, 2015

Potential Trade


Orange Juice
DT
Broke out from symmetrical triangle, the low is getting higher, formed an outside day, COT buying interest increasing

Sugar Raw
DT
Closed with outside day, waiting for break out, COT buying interest at extreme

Natural Gas
DT
DT and follow by consolidating between 2.60 and 2.93, waiting for break out, COT buying interest increasing.  Immediate support around 2.63

Oats
DT
Break out from DT channel, forming outside day bar, COT buying interest at extreme, waiting for confirmation, may long small using daily chart when break lhf on 2ET onwards.

Forex


EUR/USD
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Trying to break out of ascending triangle but failed.  Will monitor and wait for confirmation signal.

GBP/USD
Daily Neutral, Weekly DT
Consolidation since Jun, this week formed an outside day and broke weekly Diff.  Looking to short on break hlf in daily chart  and trade below weekly Diff.

USD/CHF
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Forming symmetrical triangle, waiting for break out or break down

Gold and Silver


Gold
DT
Gold broke pwh, tested TL3 but unable to hold and pull back below 1,155 level.  Looking to short if break pwl.
Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,072 and 995

Silver
DT
After failed to overcome TL2, Silver sell down tested 14.22 and recovered for 2 weeks.  Currently supported by TL3 and 14.22 level.  Staying neutral for now.
Potential Resistance 15.60, 16.68 and 17.55
Potential Support 14.38, 14.22 and 12.70

Dollar Index broke down 93.3 and rebounded

Dollar Index pierce thru 93.3 and TL3 support and rebounded back to above 95.3.  Currently is resisted by TL2.

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 29 Aug 15

BDI continue to retrace from 994 (21 Aug) to 903 (28 Aug)

Summary

Coffee, Sugar, cocoa and energy trade higher this week while the rest  are lower.

COT
Instruments that show buying interest
(3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee Arabica
  • Cocoa
  • Sugar (1)
  • Oats (1)
  • Gasoline
  • Natural Gas
  • Copper
  • Silver
  • Palladium (1)
  • Lumber (1)
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Orange Juice

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme
(2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Crude
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 






Indices short term support and resistance

Australia
DT
Tested 4,833 support level and rebounded.  A new Diff is formed and resisted by TL1 and 5,316
Potential resistance around 5,316, 5,463 and 5,528
Potential support around 5,138, 5,266, 5,025 and 4,833

Japan
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Fri broke Mon dh, need to monitor for next few days whether it is a false break.
Potential resistance around 19,740, 20,052 and 20,619
Potential support around  19,092, 18,565, 17,890 and 17,328

Hong Kong
DT
Wed to Fri are inside day of Tue, with new Diff is formed. Resisted by TL2 and 22,409.
Potential resistance around 22,409, 23,969 and 24,892
Potential support around 21,682, 21,080 and 20,011

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Similiar to HK, Wed to Fri are inside day of Tue.
Potential resistance around 10,182, 10,711 and 11,080
Potential support around 9,658, 9,195 and 8,637

UK
DT
Broke down from trend channel on Mon and recovered on Tue.  New diff is formed, break out of Diff and Thu dh. TL4 and TL1 will be resistance, more upside if can closed above these 2 resistance for 2-3 days.
Potential resistance around 6,297, 6,429 and 6,578
Potential support around 6,125, 6,070, 6,010 and 5,894

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly UT
After closing below TL3  on Tue, Germany gap down on Wed, broke 2 support levels and trend channel.  Nearly test the long term trend support (white color) and rebounded.  Thu tested trend channel support (now become resistance), if next few days unable to overcome, may see testing the long term trend support
Potential resistance around 10,653, 10,930 and 11,147
Potential support around 10,272, 9,924, 9,679, 9,468 and 9,216

India
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Back to DT trend channel for few days and rebound.  Trend channel resistance (around 7,929) will be the support for more upside.
Potential resistance around 8,223, 8,085, 8,435 and 8,578
Potential support around 7,991, 7,929, 7,812 and 7,538

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

31 Aug, Mon
  • UK Summer Bank Holiday
  • Malaysia National Day
  • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Aug)
01 Sep, Tue
  • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 0945 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)  
  • 1230 AUD Interest Rate Decision (Sep)
  • 1555 German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 1555 German Unemployment Change (Aug)
  • 1630 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
  • 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Jun)
  • 2200 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
02 Sep, Wed
  • 0930 AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 0930 AUD GDP (YoY) (Q2)
  • 1630 GBP Construction PMI (Aug)
  • 2030 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)
03 Sep, Thu
  • China Victory Day
  • 0930 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
  • 1630 GBP Services PMI (Aug)
  • 1945 EUR Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 
  • 2200 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 
04 Sep, Fri
  • China Victory Day
  • 2030 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
  • 2030 US Unemployment Rate (Aug)
  • 2030 CAD Employment Change (Aug) 
  • 2200 CAD Ivey PMI (Aug)

Indices Performance Chart - 29 Aug 15

After the huge sell-off from last week and Mon, the markets recovered between 2 to 8%, this recovery may be a technical rebound and may not be sustainable, continue to be volatile.  

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • Dow (1) (increased for 3rd week)
  • S&P (1) (increased for 1st week)
  • Nasdaq (1) (sharp increased for 1st week)
  • Russell (1) (increased for few weeks)
Since I started to monitor COT about 2 years ago, this is the first time I come across all the 4 US indices with buying interest at extreme. 
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT



A new Diff is formed this week.  Most break out of Diff and Mon dh.  Fri closing was a doji.  Will short if break pdl but small, due to the buying interest is at the extreme. If not will continue to build up long pos on every lhf

Dow 
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 17,083, 17,271, 17,351 and 17,552
Potential support around 16,503, 16,246, 15,851 and 15,376

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,996, 2,028, 2,045 and 2,061
Potential support around 1,973, 1,930, 1,886 and 1,820

Nasdaq
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,347, 4,537 and 4,640
Potential support around 4,271, 4,193, 4,089 and 3,956

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 1,164, 1,185, 1,213 and 1,240
Potential support around 1,137, 1,114 and 1,082

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Gold and Silver

Gold
DT
Gold break out of inside day and Diff on Wed, closed off above 1,155 resistance and TL2.  If Gold can hold above 1,155 and TL3 for next few days, it may test 1,224
Potential Resistance  1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,155, 1,072 and 995

Silver
DT
Silver formed a Doji on weekly chart, resisted by TL2.  Outside day is formed on daily and weekly chart, potential of a new trend
Potential Resistance 15.60, 16.68 and 17.55
Potential Support 14.38, 14.22 and 12.70

Dollar Index broke 95.3 support

Dollar Index tested 97 level but failed to hold and pull back to close below 95.3 support.  If Dollar Index unable to trade above 95.3 for next 2 days, we may see Dollar Index testing TL3 and 93.3, these 2 are important support levels.

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 22 Aug 15

BDI continue to pull back to 994 (21 Aug) from 1055 (14 Aug)

Summary
Most commodities except Gold and Platinum are trading lower despite US dollar is weakening

COT
Instruments that show buying interest
(3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee Arabica
  • Sugar (1)
  • Oats (1)
  • Gasoline
  • Natural Gas
  • Copper
  • Gold
  • Silver
  • Palladium (1)
Neutral
  • Lumber (1)
Up Trend
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • None
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Crude
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices short term support and resistance


Australia
DT
After failed to break out of Diff, sell down continue on last 2 trading days of the week.  TL4 and 5,025 level support will be potential for any technical rebound.  Failing the 2 levels, next support will be at 4,833.
Potential resistance around 5,138, 5,266 and 5,316
Potential support around 5,079, 5,025 and 4,833


Japan
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Failed to break Diff, broke hlf on Tue and sell down broke various support levels and TL4.  TL1 and 18,565 are the important levels for any potential rebound.
Potential resistance around  19,092, 19,740 and 20,052

Potential support around  18,565, 17,890 and 17,328

Hong Kong
DT
Hong Kong also failed to break Diff and broke down on Tue.  TL1 and 21,080 are the crucial level for potential rebound
Potential resistance around 22,409, 23,969 and 24,892
Potential support around 21,682, 21,080 and 20,011

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
As per my sharing last week, forming descending triangle and it broke down.
Potential resistance around 10,182, 10,711 and 11,080
Potential support around 9,658, 9,195 and 8,637

UK
DT
Hover along symmetrical triangle support for 2 days and broke down on Wed.  If you have shorted, should had taken partial/full profit.  Any rebound, TL1 and TL4 will be the resistance
Potential resistance around 6,297, 6,429 and 6,578
Potential support around 6,125, 6,070, 6,010 and 5,894

Germany
Daily DT, Weekly UT
After closing below TL3  on Tue, Germany gap down on Wed, broke 2 support levels and Trend channel.
Potential resistance around 10,272, 10,653 and 10,930
Potential support around 9,924, 9,679, 9,468 and 9,216

India
UT
Closing above Diff for 4 days, failed to stay above TL1 and unable to overcome the selling pressure from world stock markets sell-off.  On Fri, gaped down and closed below Diff.
Potential resistance around 8,435, 8,578 and 8,705
Potential support around 8,223, 8,085 and 7,991

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
25 Aug, Tue

  • 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug)
  • 2200 US CB Consumer Confidence (Aug)
  • 200 US New Home Sales (Jul)
26 Aug, Wed
  • 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)
27 Aug, Thu
  • 2030 US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
  • 2200 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)    
28 Aug, Fri
  • 1630 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q2) 
  • 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 
  • 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

Indices Performance Chart - 22 Aug 15

This week markets are selling off across the board, some of the badly hit markets are China A50(-10%), Germany, Europe and Nasdaq down around -8%.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

  • None
Neutral
  • S&P (1) (decreased for 1st week)
  •  Nasdaq (decreased for 1st week)
DT
  • Dow (1) (increased for 2nd week)
  • Russell (increased for few weeks)
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT



US Indices tested and try to break Diff in early of the week but failed and sell-off start on Wed.  Thu and Fri the sell-off was furious, broke few support levels.  Any fast recovery, I am expecting to test recent low.

Had took partial profit on my hedging (short) positions.  My strategy is continue with short term trading add short position on every hlf.

Dow
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Potential resistance around 16,503, 17,083, 17,271 and 17,351
Potential support around 16,246, 15,851 and 15,376

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  1,973, 1,996, 2,028 and 2,045
Potential support around 1,930, 1,886 and 1,820

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 4,271, 4,347 and 4,537
Potential support around  4,193, 4,089 and 3,956

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,164, 1,185, 1,213 and 1,240
Potential support around 1,137, 1,114 and 1,082

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Soft Commodity

Recently one of my friend shared with me when she attended a talk .  The speaker mentioned about trading opportunities with soft commodities that been in bear for years. When Fed start to raised rates, this could be their bottom.  Thus this posting is do an overview and follow with a plan if the opportunity do come by.  In fact El Nino will also causes soft commodities production to be lower resulting in high price too.



Corn
Break out of symmetrical triangle in Jun and break down. 345 will be an important support level.  Closing below this level for 2-3 days will see more selling.  COT buying interest is building up, more in favour to long

Wheat
Forming descending triangle since Aug 2014.  Immediate support at 485, next support around 465.  COT buying interest is building up, more in
favour to long

Coffee Arabica
In UT, retracement support will be TL2 and TL1.

Sugar Raw
Falling Wedge (TL1 and TL2) and COT buying interest is building up, more in flavor to long.  May go long if can break out of TL2 with confirmation signal.  May use V3Go break on lhf to build up small position and SL will be -1(v) of TL1.

Rough Rice
Trading within UT channel.  If closed 3 days below 10 SMA, get out first.

Oats
May go long if break out of TL1 with confirmation signal.  COT interest is near to all time high.

Soybean
Break out and pull back near to 2010 low.  920 will be an important level for recent low.  COT buying interest is getting lower, not in
favour to go long.

Soybean Meal
COT buying interest is below 10, will not go long until COT buying interest is building up again

Soybean Oil
Trade within DT channel.  Tested recent support at 29.27, if unable to hold expect more selling. 

US Cocoa
If unable to hold 3012 strong support, may test 2678.  COT buying interest is building up, will only long if there is a signal and trade above 3012 level.

Gold and Silver

Gold
DT
Gold recovered this week but still an inside bar of 19 Jul week.  

Gold resistance at 1,155, TL2 and TL3 while support level at 1,072
Breaking 1,155 resistance level, may test 1,224.  Breaking and closed below 1,072 may see Gold testing 995 level.
Potential Resistance 1,155, 1,224 and 1,293
Potential Support 1,072, 995 and 848


Silver
DT
Silver currently supported by weekly Diff SL at 14.38, TL3 and TL4. 

Breaking and closed above TL2 resistance, may see Silver testing 16.68 level.
Potential Resistance 15.80, 16.68 and 17.23
Potential Support 14.38, 14.22 and 12.70

Dollar Index broke support and recovered

Dollar Index broke 2 support 97.0 and 96.3 and closed at 96.5 As per my sharing last week, failing to hold at 97.0 may see testing TL2 and 96.3 level. 97.0, 96.3 and TL2 are tested.  Currently are supported by 96.3 and TL2.  The next immediate support is 95.3 

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 15 Aug 15

BDI retreat from 1200 (07 Aug) to 1055 (14 Aug)

Summary
Cotton, Coffee, Sugar and most metals are trading higher this week, the rest close lower

COT
Instruments that show buying interest
(3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Sugar
  • Oats (1)
  • Gasoline
  • Copper
  • Gold
  • Silver
  • Palladium (1)
  • Platinum
Neutral
  • Lumber (1)
Up Trend
  • Coffee Arabica
Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Soybean Meal
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Crude
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT

Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices short term support and resistance


Australia
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
Thu and Fri formed inside day
after Wed sell down.  A new diff had formed.  The sell down on Wed, broke channel support and long term trend line support.  Need to recover and close above TL1 2-3 days for more upside.
Potential resistance around 5,463, 5,528 and 5,617
Potential support around 5,316, 5,266 and 5,138

Japan
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Broke down from triangle, dl was few points away from 20,052 support.  The following 2 days formed inside day and new diff.  TL4 will be the support if 20,052 is broken.
Potential resistance around  20,619, 20,900, 22,500^ and 23,900^ 

Potential support around  20,052, 19,740 and 19,092
^Est figure using chart provided by Yahoo finance

Hong Kong
DT
A false break out on Tue follow by sell down and broke Diff and long term trend line support on Wed.  Thu and Fri formed inside day.
Potential resistance around 24,892, 25,571 and 26,681
Potential support around  23,969, 22,409 and 21,682

Hong Kong China H-Shares
Daily DT, Weekly UT.
Quite similiar to HK, false break out on Tue and sell down on Wed.  Forming descending triangle, monitor for potential break out or break down, best to have some form of confirmation before entering a trade.
Potential resistance around 11,366, 11,821, 12,404 and 13,021
Potential support around 11,080, 10,711 and 10,450

UK
Daily DT, Weekly Neutral
After failing to break pwh, it sell down on Wed and currently supported by TL3 and weekly diff SL  UK need to continue to trade above TL3 for more upside.  It is forming a symmetrical triangle, may monitor for potential break out or break down
Potential resistance around 6,809, 6,949 and 7,047
Potential support around 6,578, 6,489, 6,429 and 6,297

Germany
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
The worst performer for this week, down nearly by 5%.  Currently supported by TL1.  Technical rebound may cover the 11-12 Aug gap. Retracement support will be at TL3, closing below will be bearish in short term.
Potential resistance around 11,147, 11,532, 11,774 and 11,994
Potential support around 10,930, 10,653 and 10,272

India
UT
Broke TL1 and recovered on Fri.  3rd time testing 8311 level.  New Diff is formed.  Need to closed above TL1 for more upside.
Potential resistance around 8,578, 8,705, 8,836 and 9,006
Potential support around 8,435, 8,311 and 8,223

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

18 Aug, Tue
  • 0930 AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Jul)
  • 2030 US Building Permits (Jul)
19 Aug, Wed
  • 2030 US Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
20 Aug, Thu
  • 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 
  • 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Jul)
  • 2200 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) 
  • 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 
  • 2030 Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)  
21 Aug, Fri
  • 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

Indices Performance Chart - 15 Aug 15

Most  markets closed lower.  Germany got the worst hit, down by almost 5% while little changed on US.

Instruments that show buying interest from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT

  • None
Neutral
  • Dow (1) (Sharp increased for 1st week)
  • Nasdaq (increased for 2nd week)
DT
  • S&P (1) (increased for 3rd week)
  • Russell (increased for 3rd week)
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90
(2) COT Index <= 10
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal from DT to UT



After recovered from last week, Dow, Nasdaq and Russell broke pwl.  S&P formed an inside day.  Dow and Russell had tested long term support, if next week fail to trade above long term support, may see more selling.

 

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Dow broke long term trend support (white)and recovered.  New Diff is formed.  To have upside, need to closed above TL3 for another 2 days. To continue UT, need to overcome TL2 and Diff RL
Potential resistance around 17,604, 17,775 and 17,922
Potential support around 17,351, 17,271, 17,083 and 16,503

S&P
Daily DT, Weekly UT
S&P broke TL1, TL5 and recovered.  A new Diff is formed.  To continue UT, need to overcome TL6 and must not closed below 2061 for more than 3 days.
Potential resistance around  2,097, 2,116, 2,129 and 2,137
Potential support around 2,078, 2,061, 2,045 and 2,028

Nasdaq

Daily Neutral, Weekly UT 
Nasdaq broke TL3 and recovered, new diff is formed.  Need to overcome TL4 for more upside.
Potential resistance around 4,537, 4,640 and 4,682
Potential support around  4,347, 4,271 and 4,089

Russell
Daily DT, Weekly UT
Continue to be resisted by TL3.  For more upside need to close above TL3 for 2-3 days. 1,185 may still be tested.
Potential resistance around 1,213, 1,240 and 1,257
Potential support around 1,185, 1,164 and 1,137

Monday, August 10, 2015

Dollar Index edge higher

Dollar Index edge higher to 97.62 from 97.44.
Dollar Index continue to be resisted by TL1 and TL3.  97 level will be the 1st support, failing to hold may see testing TL2 and 96.3 level.


USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA