Wednesday, November 15, 2017

COT 07 Nov 17

COT for US Indices

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None


COT for Commodities
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • None
Neutral
  • Corn (1)
  • Coffee (1)
Up Trend
  • Wheat
  • Cocoa
  • Sugar
  • Crude
  • Natural Gas (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Oats
  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Feeder Cattle
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Gold

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

Sunday, November 12, 2017

Dollar Index directionless

Dollar Index continues directionless for the second week.
Must not close below TLU9 for more than 2-3 days. 
Resistance at 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3, TLU8
Support at 94.0, TLD3, TLU9, 93.0, Trend Channel (Blue), 92.0



Weekly chart with 50 SMA

US Markets 11 Nov 17

This week COT data release is been delayed to 14 Nov (SGT) due to a Federal holiday.  Earliest available will be on 14 Nov late evening or 15 Nov morning.

US markets closed mixed.  
On the weekly chart, 
- Dow closed with a -roc outside day
- S&P broke higher but closed with a +roc doji. 
- Nasdaq broke higher but closed with -roc.
- Russell broke down from consolidation, tested TLU1 and rebounded.  If TLU1 unable next strong support will be around 1,451.

BDI and Harpex continue to go lower. 
BDI lower from 1,476 (03 Nov) to 1,464 (10 Nov)
Harpex lower from 473.83 (28 Oct) to 473.24 (04 Nov)
This is a norm when coming to year end.

Dollar Index directionless

Various countries will report CPI data.





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 23,435, 24,847
Potential support around 23,175, 22,777, 22,717, TLU11, 22,409

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748
Potential support around 2,576, TLU1, 2,512, 2,506, 2,480

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,347, 6,983
Potential support around 6,261, 6,118, TLU6, 6,061, 5,952, TLU3, 5,890

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 1,483, 1,519, 1,649
Potential support around 1,451,TLU2, 1,420, 1,401, 1,389


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
13 Nov, Mon
  • No important data
14 Nov, Tue
  • 1000 CNY China Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)
  • 1500 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 1730 GBP UK CPI (YoY) (Oct)
  • 1800 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) 
  • 1800 EUR Europe Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)
  • 2130 USD US PPI (MoM) (Oct)
15 Nov, Wed 
  • 0750 JPY Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Claimant Count Change (Oct)   
  • 2130 USD US Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  • 2130 USD US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 2130 USD US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 2330 USD US Crude Oil Inventories 
16 Nov, Thu
  • 0830 AUD Australia Employment Change (Oct) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 1800 EUR Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct)  
  • 2130 USD US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) 
17 Nov, Fri
  • 2130 USD US Building Permits (Oct)
  • 2130 CAD Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)

Sunday, November 5, 2017

Dollar Index formed an inside day

Dollar Index trading directionless for the week and closed with an inside day on the weekly chart.
Must not close below TLU9 for more than 2-3 days. 
Resistance at 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3, TLU8



Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 04 Nov 17

BDI continues to go lower from 1,546 (27 Oct) to 1,476 (03 Nov)
Harpex lower again for this week from 494.11 (21 Oct) to 473.83 (28 Oct) 

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Wheat
  • Coffee (1)
  • Natural Gas
Neutral
  • Corn (1)
  • Up Trend
  • Cocoa
  • Sugar
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Copper
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Gold

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 04 Nov 17

Dow, S&P and Nasdaq create a new historic high.  Russell continues to be resisted.  On the daily chart, Dow closed with a hanging man.  S&P and Nasdaq broke lhf.  Russell consolidating.

BDI and Harpex continue to pull back.

Dollar Index formed an inside day on the weekly chart.

This week will be a pretty quiet week with little data.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
  • Russell
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,847
Potential support around 23,435, 23,175, 22,777, 22,717, TLU11, 22,409

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748
Potential support around 2,576, TLU1, 2,512, 2,506, 2,480

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,983
Potential support around 6,261, 6,118, TLU3, 6,061, 5,952, 5,890

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,519, 1,649
Potential support around 1,483, TLU1, 1,448, 1,419, 1,399, 1,389


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
06 Nov, Mon
  • 2300 CAD Canada Ivey PMI (Oct) 
07 Nov, Tue
  • 1130 AUD Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov) 
  • 2300 USD US JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)
08 Nov, Wed
  • 2330 USD US Crude Oil Inventories 
09 Nov, Thu
  • 0400 NZD New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision    
10 Nov, Fri
  • 1730 GBP UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep)

Note: Due to service provider had migrated to a new platform, they had removed of the features that exist on the old platform.  I have checked with them and they have no intention to have those features anymore, this to omit those charts.

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Dollar Index closed with a shooting start

Dollar Index broke lhf on the weekly chart, rallied and closed above 94.0. Fri closed with a shooting star, need to watch out on Mon trading, potential pull back.  Must not close below TLU9 for more than 2-3 days. 
Resistance at 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3, TLU8
Support at 94.0, TLD3, 93.0, TLU9, 93.0, Trend Channel (Blue), 92.0



Weekly chart with 50 SMA