Sunday, December 17, 2017

COT Charts

COT for US Indices

Download Commodities COT


COT for Dollar Index

Monday, December 11, 2017

Dollar Index tested another resistance level

Dollar Index need to continue to stay above TLD3 to continue with the positive momentum.
Resistance at 94.0, TLU9, 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3
Support at TLD3, 93.0, 92.0, Trend Channel (Blue),TLD2, 90.6


COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA


Commodities Update - 09 Dec 17

BDI continue to surge; from 1,626( 01 Dec) to 1702 (08 Dec)
Harpex edged lower from 477.71 (25 Nov) to 477.41 (02 Dec)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Wheat
  • Coffee
Neutral
  • Corn
  • Natural Gas
Up Trend
  • Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Soybean Meal
  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Copper
  • Palladium
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Oats
  • Feeder Cattle

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 09 Dec 17

US markets (except Nasdaq) created a new historic high but failed to hold and closed with a -roc on the weekly chart.  Nasdaq broke pwl, recovered but still closed with a -roc.

Dollar Index broke lhf on the weekly chart and closed higher.

BDI surged higher again.

14 Dec will be a busy day starting at 0300 US Interest rate decision, SNB (Swiss National Bank) Interest rate decision in the afternoon while ECB Interest Rate Decision in the evening.  Expecting volatile week before most fund close for the year.

I will be taking a short break from this holiday season.  If COT is available, I will post the charts.  Next update will be either on the 7 or 14 Jan 2018 depending on when will the COT data is released.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • Nasdaq

Neutral 

  • None

DT 

  • None


Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • Russell

Neutral 

  • None

DT 

  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,520, 24,847
Potential support around 24,157, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,777, 22,717, TLU11, 22,409

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748
Potential support around 2,650, 2,593, TLU1, 2,576, 2,552, 2,512, 2,506, 2,480

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,347, 6,421,  6,983
Potential support around 6,261, 6,118, TLU6, 6,061, 5,952, TLU3, 5,890

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,543, 1,649
Potential support around 1,519, 1,508, TLU1, 1,497, 1,451, TLU2, 1,420, 1,401, 1,389


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

11 Dec, Mon
  • 2300 USD US JOLTs Job Openings (Nov) 
12 Dec, Tue
  • 1730 GBP UK CPI (YoY) (Nov)
  • 1800 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec) 
  • 2130 USD US PPI (MoM) (Nov)
13 Dec, Wed 
  • 0300 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks (Oct) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Oct) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Claimant Count Change (Nov) 
  • 2130 USD US Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 2330 USD US Crude Oil Inventories 
14 Dec, Thu
  • 0300 USD FOMC Economic Projections     
  • 0300 USD FOMC Statement
  • 0300 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision  
  • 0300 USD FOMC Press Conference 
  • 0830 AUD Australia Employment Change (Nov)       
  • 1000 CNY China Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)
  • 1630 CHF SNB (Swiss National Bank) Interest Rate Decision    
  • 1630 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment   
  • 1630 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 
  • 1700 CHF SNB Press Conference      
  • 1730 GBP UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 2000 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 
  • 2000 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes     
  • 2045 EUR Europe Deposit Facility Rate 
  • 2045 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 
  • 2130 USD US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 2130 USD US Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 
  • 2130 EUR ECB Press Conference 
15  Dec, Fri
  • 0125 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • 0750 JPY Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)
  • 0750 JPY Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q4) 

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Dollar Index closed at minor support

Dollar Index broke lower, recovered and closed at 92.8.  On the weekly chart, it closed with a +roc.
Resistance at 93.0, TLD3, 94.0, TLU9, 95.0, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3
Support at 92.0, Trend Channel (Blue), TLD2, 90.6


COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 02 Dec 17

BDI surged from 1,458 (24 Nov) to 1,626( 01 Dec)
Harpex remained flat at 477.71 (25 Nov)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Wheat
  • Coffee
Neutral
  • Corn
  • Natural Gas (1)
Up Trend
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Oats
  • Heating Oil
  • Lumber
  • Copper
  • Palladium
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • Gold

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average

US Markets 02 Dec 17

US markets closed mixed.  DOW, S&P and Russell closed at the historic high while Nasdaq closed lower.  On the weekly chart, Nasdaq closed with an outside day.

Dollar Index hovered around mini support 92.8.

BDI surged higher.

US will be reporting NFP and unemployment rate on Fri (08 Dec).

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 
  • Nasdaq

Neutral 
  • None

DT 
  • None


Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 
  • Russell

Neutral 
  • None

DT 
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average




Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,847
Potential support around 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,777, 22,717, TLU11, 22,409

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748
Potential support around 2,593, TLU1, 2,576, 2,552, 2,512, 2,506, 2,480

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,347, 6,421,  6,983
Potential support around 6,261, 6,118, TLU6, 6,061, 5,952, TLU3, 5,890

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,543, 1,649
Potential support around 1,519, 1,508, TLU1, 1,497, 1,451, TLU2, 1,420, 1,401, 1,389


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
04 Dec, Mon
  • 1730 GBP UK Construction PMI (Nov) 
05 Dec, Tue
  • 0830 AUD Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 1130 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 
  • 1130 AUD RBA Rate Statement
  • 1730 GBP UK Services PMI (Nov)  
  • 2300 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 
06 Dec, Wed 
  • 0830 AUD Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 2115 USD US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)
  • 2300 CAD Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision  
  • 2330 USD US Crude Oil Inventories 
07 Dec, Thu
  • 2300 CAD Canada Ivey PMI (Nov) 
08 Dec, Fri
  • 0750 JPY Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 
  • 1730 GBP UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 2130 USD US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) 
  • 2130 USD US Unemployment Rate (Nov)