Monday, June 26, 2017

Dollar Index continues to be resisted

Dollar Index broke 97.3 resistance but failed to hold above again.  In the weekly chart, it formed an inside day.   It needs to stay above 97.3 to overcome bearish sentiment.
Resistance at 97.3, 98.3, TLU7, 99.8, TLU9, 100.3
Support at TLD5, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3. 95.0



USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)


Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 26 Jun 17

BDI close higher from 851 (16 Jun) to 870 (23 Jun)
Harpex lower from 443.72 (10 Jun) to 439.54 (17 Jun)

Summary
Most commodities closed lower.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Soybeans (1)
  • Soybean Meal
  • Sugar (1)
  • Coffee  (1)
  • Cocoa
  • Orange Juice
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Gasoline
Neutral
  • None
Up Trend
  • Soybean Oil

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Wheat
  • Feeder Cattle
  • Rough Rice
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 24 Jun 17

Most markets closed lower.  In the weekly chart, US markets closed higher with -roc for Dos and S&P..
BDI closed higher while Harpex continues going down.
Dollar Index continues to be resisted at 97.3.
Wed, US Goods Trade Balance and US GDP data on Thu
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets closed mixed in the daily chart.  In the weekly chart, us markets closed higher.   Dow and S&P closed with -roc, while Nasdaq and Russell closed with +roc.  Nasdaq broke lhf on the weekly chart.


Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 21,451, TLU6, 23,462
Potential support around TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669

S&P
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU7, 5,890, 6,261, 6,983
Potential support around 5,722, TLU3, TLU5, 5,538, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,420, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

    26 Jun, Mon
    • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jun)
    • 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) 
    27 Jun, Tue
    • 2200 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)
    28 Jun, Wed
    • 2030 USD Goods Trade Balance
    • 2200 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May)      
    • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
    29 Jun, Thu
    • 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
    30 Jun, Fri
    • 0900 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
    • 1600 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jun)
    • 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
    • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jun) 
    • 2030 CAD GDP (MoM) (Apr)

    Sunday, June 18, 2017

    Dollar Index failed to hold

    Dollar Index rebounded and broke 97.3 resistance but failed to hold above before closing for the week.  In the weekly chart, an outside day is formed with a small roc.  It needs to stay above 97.3 to overcome bearish sentiment.
    Resistance at 97.3, 98.3, TLU7, 99.8, TLU9, 100.3
    Support at TLD5, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3. 95.0


    USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

    Weekly chart with 50 SMA

    Commodities Update - 17 Jun 17

    BDI edge higher from 849 (09 Jun) to 851 (16 Jun)
    Harpex lower again from 458.92 (03 Jun) to 443.72 (10 Jun)

    Summary
    Most metals, coffee and sugar closed lower while the rest closed mixed.

    COT 
    Download Commodities COT
    Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
    Down Trend

    • Soybeans
    • Soybean Meal
    • Sugar (1)
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Orange Juice
    • Natural Gas
    Neutral
    • None
    Up Trend
    • Soybean Oil

    Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
    Up Trend

    • Feeder Cattle
    • Rough Rice
    Neutral
    • Gold
    Down Trend
    • None

    Note
    (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
    (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
    (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
    Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






    Indices Performance Chart - 17 Jun 17

    Most markets closed lower.  US markets closed mixed, no clear direction.  A quiet week ahead, not many important data.  Based the COT charts, I will be extra cautious.
    Harpex continues to decline.  Metals closed lower.
    Dollar Index broke 97.3 resistance but failed to hold before closing.

    Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
    UT
    • None
    Neutral
    • None
    DT
    • None

    Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

    UT
    • None
    Neutral
    • None
    DT
    • None
    Note
    (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
    (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
    (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
    Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


    US markets closed mixed.  Dow made new historic high, Nasdaq continue to pull back, S&P and Russell formed inside day in the weekly chart.  Based the COT charts, I will be extra cautious especially increase buying interest in Others while a decrease in Dealer.

    Dow
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 21,451, TLU6, 23,462
    Potential support around TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, 20,756, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669

    S&P
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around TLU5, TLU1,2,522, 2,758
    Potential support around 2,392, 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137

    Nasdaq
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 5,722, TLU7, 5,890, 6,261, 6,983
    Potential support around TLU3, TLU5, 5,538, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

    Russell
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 1,420, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
    Potential support around 1,389, 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

    Key event to watch out  (SG Time)


      19 Jun, Mon
      • No important data
      20 Jun, Tue
      • 0930 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
      21 Jun, Wed
      • 0750 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
      • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (May)  
      • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
      22 Jun, Thu
      • 0500 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
      • 0500 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
      • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 
      23 Jun, Fri
      • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
      • 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (May)
      • 2200 USD New Home Sales (May)

      Sunday, June 11, 2017

      Dollar Index recovered

      Dollar Index broke pwl and recovered with a +roc.
      Resistance at 97.3, 98.3, TLU7, 99.8, TLU9, 100.3
      Support at TLD5, Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3. 95.0


      USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

      Weekly chart with 50 SMA