Sunday, October 15, 2017

No update of blog for this week

Due to my godmother had passed away, I will not be updating my blog for this week.


Here are the COT charts 


Download Commodities COT

Sunday, October 8, 2017

Dollar Index closed above 93.0

Dollar Index broke and closed above 93.0.  It also tested 94.0 and TLD3 resistance level.
Watch out for 12 Oct release of FOMC Minutes and ECB President Draghi's Speech.
Resistance at 94.0, TLD3. 95.0, TLU8
Support at 93.0, Trend Channel (Blue), TLD2, 92.0, TLD7, TLD5, 90.6. 89.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 07 Oct 17

BDI rose from 1,356 (29 Sep) to 1,405 (06 Oct)
Harpex continue to close lower for 2nd week from 513.79 (23 Sep) to 506.34 (30 Sep)

Summary
Commodities closed mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee
  • Sugar
  • Corn
Neutral
  • Natural Gas
  • Crude
Up Trend
  • Cocoa

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Gold
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 07 Oct 17

Asia and US closed higher while Europe closed mixed.
US markets created a historic high.
BDI rose, Harpex pull back.
Dollar Index broke 93 resistance level.

On 12 Oct, FOMC Minutes at 0200 Hrs while ECB President Draghi's Speech at 2230 Hrs.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


US markets created a historic high.  On the weekly chart, Dow and Nasdaq broke lhf.  Russell continues the run-up for 4 consecutive weeks.



Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,847
Potential support around 22,717, TLU11, 22,121, 22,027, TLU6, TLD1, 21,659

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 2,748
Potential support around 2,512, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,261, TLU7, 6,983
Potential support around 6,003, 5,952, 5,890, TLD1, TLU3, TLU5, 5,722,  5,634

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,519, TLU3, TLU5, 
Potential support around TLU1, 1,451, 1,420, 1,389, TLD1, 1,341


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
09 Oct, Mon
  • Canada and Japan holiday.
  • No important data
10 Oct, Tue
  • 1630 GBP UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) 
11 Oct, Wed
  • 2200 USD US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)   
12 Oct, Thu
  • 0200 USD FOMC Minutes*
  • 2030 USD US PPI (MoM) (Sep)
  • 2230 EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech
  • 2300 USD Crude Oil Inventories
13 Sep, Fri
  • 2030 USD US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 2030 USD US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 
  • 2030 USD US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 

Sunday, October 1, 2017

Dollar Index broke and close above 92.0

Dollar Index broke 92.0 and 93.0.  It failed to close above 93.0.
On the weekly chart, it broke lhf and outside day 08 Sep.
Need to stay above 93.0 for more upside.
Resistance at 93.0, 94.0, TLD3. 95.0
Support at Trend Channel (Blue), TLD2, 92.0, TLD7, TLD5, 90.6. 89.3

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 30 Sep 17

BDI fell sharply from 1,502 (22 Sep) to 1,356 (29 Sep)
Harpex closed lower from 517.07 (16 Sep) to 513.79 (23 Sep)

Summary
Commodities continue to close mixed.

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Coffee
  • Sugar
  • Corn
Neutral
  • Natural Gas
Up Trend
  • Cocoa
  • Crude

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Heating Oil
  • Gold
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Feeder Cattle
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average






Indices Performance Chart - 30 Sep 17

Europe and US closed higher while most Asia closed lower.
US markets closed higher.  Russell created the new historic high.
BDI and Harpex pull back.
Dollar Index broke and closed above 92.  Need to stay above 93.0 for more upside.

China is on a long holiday. Fed Chair Yellen Speaks on Thu, US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate on Fri.
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • Nasdaq
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • Dow
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


US markets closed higher.  On the weekly chart, Dow, S&P and Nasdaq broke pwl and recovered with closed with a +roc.  Russell rallied and created the new historic high.

Dow
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 22,717, 24,847
Potential support around TLU11, 22,121, 22,027, TLU6, TLD1, 21,659

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU1, 2,748
Potential support around 2,512, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406, 2,392, 2,366

Nasdaq
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 6,003, 6,261, TLU7, 6,983
Potential support around 5,952, 5,890, TLD1, TLU3, TLU5, 5,722,  5,634

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,519, TLU3, TLU5, 
Potential support around TLU1, 1,451, 1,420, 1,389, TLD1, 1,341


Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

02 Oct, Mon
  • China, Hong Kong and India holiday.
  • 0750 JPY Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3)
  • 0750 JPY Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3) 
  • 1555 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
  • 1630 GBP UK Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 
  • 2200 USD US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
03 Oct, Tue
  • China and Germany holiday.
  • 1130 AUD Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
  • 1130 AUD Australia RBA Rate Statement
  • 1630 GBP UK Construction PMI (Sep)
04 Oct, Wed
  • China holiday.
  • 2015 USD US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
  • 2200 USD US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)  
  • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
05 Oct, Thu
  • China and Hong Kong holiday
  • 0315 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • 0830 AUD Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
  • 1930 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
29 Sep, Fri
  • China holiday
  • 2030 USD US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
  • 2030 USD US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
  • 2030 CAD Canada Employment Change (Sep) 
  • 2200 CAD Canada Ivey PMI (Sep)