Monday, May 21, 2018

Dollar Index broke 93.0 resistance

On the daily chart, it broke lhf, rallied Dollar to close above 93.0 resistance.  On the weekly chart, it closed with an outside day.
Resistance at  94.0, 95.0, 96.3
Support at 93.0, TLD3, 92.0, 90.6, Trend Channel (Blue)



COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 19 May 18

BDI slide down to 1273 (18 May) from 1472 (11 May)
Harpex closed higher for another week at 656.63 (12 May) from 653.64 (05 May) 

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Sugar
  • Soybean Oil
  • Platinum
Neutral
  • Silver
Up Trend
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Corn
  • Cocoa
  • Cotton
  • Rough Rice
  • Gasoline
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • Soybean Meal

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average



Coffee seems supported for the moment.
Orange juice tested another resistance level and pull back.  Had taken partial profit.


US Markets 19 May 18

US markets closed lower while Russell created historic high.

Harpex contiues to go higher.
Dollar Index broke and closed above the resistance level.

US Markets 12 May 18, Thu 0200 Hrs (SGT) FOMC meeting minutes.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • DOW
  • Nasdaq (1)
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average



Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,847, 
TLU11, 25,507, 25,821, Lower Trend Channel (Blue), 25,956
Potential support around 24,175, TLD1, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776, TLU6, 22,121

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748, 2,800, TLU3, Lower Trend Channel (green), 2,874
Potential support around  2,710, 2,593, TLD1, 2,551, TLU1, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406

Nasdaq
Daily 
Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  6,983, TLU7, 7,134, 7,706
Potential support around 6,857, TLU6, 6,346, 6,261, TLU3, 6,061, TLU4, 5,952

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
TLU3, 1,649
Potential support around 1,609, 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, TLD1, 1,451

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)

21 May, Mon
  • Canada, Switzerland and Germany holiday.
  • No important event
22 May, Tue
  • Hong Kong holiday
  • No important event
23 May, Wed
  • 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
  • 1530 German Manufacturing PMI (May)
  • 1630 UK CPI (YoY) (Apr)
  • 2200 US New Home Sales (Apr)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
24 May, Thu
  • 0200 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 1930 Europe ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
  • 2200 US Existing Home Sales (Apr)
25 May, Fri
  • 1600 German Ifo Business Climate Index (May)
  • 1630 UK GDP (YoY) (Q1)
  • 2030 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) 
  • 2100 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Monday, May 14, 2018

Dollar Index tested resistance

Dollar Index tested 93.0 resistance,  broke hlf and closed lower.
On the weekly chart, it closed with a doji.
Resistance at TLD3, 93.0, 94.0, 95.0
Support at 92.0, 90.6, Trend Channel (Blue), TLD2, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update 12 May 18

BDI climbed higher to 1472 (11 May) from 1384 (4 May)
Harpex edged higher 653.64 (05 May) from 652.45 (28 Apr)

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend
  • Sugar (1)
  • Soybean Oil
  • Platinum
Neutral
  • Silver
Up Trend
  • Natural Gas (1)
  • Crude (1)

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend
  • Corn
  • Cocoa
  • Cotton
  • Rough Rice
  • Gasoline
  • Lumber
Neutral
  • Soybean Meal
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average


Mar 2018 posted on Monitoring Coffee and Orange

Coffee continues to pull back.  It must not break recent low to continue the positive sentiment.

Orange juice tested and closed above the 2nd resistance level.



US Markets 12 May 18

On the weekly charts, US markets broke lhf and rallied.  Russell is going to test historic high again.  This will be the 3rd time.

Dollar Index tested resistance and pull back.

Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT 

  • Nasdaq (1)
Neutral 
  • None
DT 
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT 

  • None
Neutral 
  • S&P
DT 
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average





Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 24,847, 
TLU11, 25,507, 25,821, Lower Trend Channel (Blue), 25,956
Potential support around 24,175, TLD1, 23,567, 23,435, 23,175, 22,776, TLU6, 22,121

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,748, 2,800, TLU3, Lower Trend Channel (green), 2,874
Potential support around  2,710, 2,593, TLD1, 2,551, TLU1, 2,506, 2,480, 2,450, 2,406

Nasdaq
Daily 
Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around  6,983, TLU7, 7,134, 7,706
Potential support around 6,857, TLU6, 6,346, 6,261, TLU3, 6,061, TLU4, 5,952

Russell
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 
1,609, TLU3, 1,649
Potential support around 1,585, 1,543, 1,519, 1,508, 1,494, TLD1, 1,451, 1,420, 1,388

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)
14 May, Mon
  • No important event
15 May, Tue
  • 0930 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 1000 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr) 
  • 1400 German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
  • 1630 UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar) 
  • 1630 UK Claimant Count Change (Apr)   
  • 1700 UK Inflation Report Hearings   
  • 1700 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May)
  • 2030 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
  • 2030 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 
16 May, Wed
  • 0750 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 1700 Europe CPI (YoY) (Apr)
  • 2200 Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 2030 US Building Permits (Apr)
  • 2230 US Crude Oil Inventories
17 May, Thu
  • 0930 Australia Employment Change (Apr) 
  • 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) 
18 May, Fri
  • 2030 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)  
  • 2030 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 

Sunday, May 6, 2018

Dollar Index continues to go higher

Dollar Index did not pull back and continues to climb higher and testing TLD3 resistance. 
Resistance at TLD3, 93.0, 94.0, 95.0
Support at 92.0, 90.6, Trend Channel (Blue), TLD2, 88.88

COT for Dollar Index

Weekly chart with 50 SMA