Sunday, May 21, 2017

Dollar Index slumped down

In the weekly chart, Dollar Index broke down from outside day and slump down tested trend channel.  May see potential technical rebound
Watch out for FOMC meeting minutes at 25 May 0200 and US GDP on 26 May 2030
Resistance at TLD5, 97.3, 98.3, TLU7, 99.8, TLU9, 100.3
Support at Trend Channel (Dark Blue), 96.3. 95.0

USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

Weekly chart with 50 SMA

Commodities Update - 20 May 17

BDI is below 1000 again from 1014 (12 May) to 956 (19 May)
Harpex pull back slightly from 533.47 (06 May)  to 533.17 (13 May)

Summary
Most Metals and Energy closed higher while the rest closed mixed

COT 
Download Commodities COT
Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Down Trend

  • Sugar
  • Coffee
  • Soybeans
Neutral
  • Corn (1)
  • Soybean Oil
  • Platinum
Up Trend
  • Cocoa (1)
  • Gasoline (1)
  • Natural Gas

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Up Trend

  • Feeder Cattle
Neutral
  • None
Down Trend
  • None

Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average







Indices Performance Chart - 20 May 17

Most markets closed lower.  S&P trend had changed from UT to neutral.
Dollar Index slumped  down more than 2% in a week.  Potential technical rebound. 
25 May (Thu) 0200 FOMC Meeting minutes and 26 May (Fri) US GDP.
Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None

Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

UT
  • None
Neutral
  • None
DT
  • None
Note
(1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
(2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
(3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


US markets slump down, broke pwl (previous week low) and recovered some losses before closing for the week.
Nasdaq created a historic high and closed with a -roc outside day in the weekly chart.  Russell continues to be resisted by 1389.
S&P trend had changed from UT to neutral.

Dow
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU11, TLU5, 21,099, TLU6, 21,451
Potential support around 20,756, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669, 18,557, TLU1, 18,367

S&P
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 2,392, TLU5, TLU1,2,522
Potential support around 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

Nasdaq
Daily UT, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around TLU3, 5,722, 6,261
Potential support around TLU7, TLU5, 5,538, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

Russell
Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
Potential resistance around 1,389, 1,420, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

Key event to watch out  (SG Time)


    22 May, Mon

    • Canada Holiday
    • No important data
    23 May, Tue
    • 1400 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 
    • 1600 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (May) 
    • 1700 GBP Inflation Report Hearings
    • 2200 USD New Home Sales (Apr)
    24 May, Wed
    • 1530 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (May)  
    • 2200 USD Existing Home Sales (Apr) 
    • 2200 USD BoC Interest Rate Decision 
    • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
    25 May, Thu
    • 0200 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
    • 1630 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
    26 May, Fri
    • 2030 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr)
    • 2030 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 

    Sunday, May 14, 2017

    Dollar Index formed outside day

    In the weekly chart, Dollar Index formed another outside day with +roc.
    Overall, no clear direction, potential for big movement to determine the direction
    Resistance at 99.8, TLU9, 100.3, TLD6, 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU6, 102.2
    Support at TLU7, 98.3, TLD5, 97.3, 96.3

    USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

    Weekly chart with 50 SMA

    Commodities Update - 13 May 17

    BDI edge higher from 994 (5 May) to 1014 (12 May)
    Harpex went higher from 523.33 (29 Apr) to 533.47 (06 May) 

    Summary
    Energy closed higher, grains closed lower while the rest closed mixed.

    COT 
    Download Commodities COT
    Instruments that show buying interest (3) by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
    Down Trend

    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Soybeans
    • Platinum
    Neutral
    • Cocoa (1)
    • Corn (1)
    • Soybean Oil (1)
    • Gasoline (1)
    Up Trend
    • Natural Gas

    Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) only by Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
    Up Trend

    • Feeder Cattle
    Neutral
    • None
    Down Trend
    • None

    Note
    (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
    (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
    (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
    Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 







    Indices Performance Chart - 13 May 17

    Asia and Europe closed higher while US closed lower. DOW's trend started to turn negative.  BDI back above 1000 mark while Harpex continues to go higher.
    Dollar Index formed another outside day with +roc in the weekly chart.
    Not much important economic data from US this week.
    Instruments that show buying interest (3) from Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)
    UT
    • None
    Neutral
    • None
    DT
    • None

    Instruments that show selling interest at extreme (2) by Dealer/Intermediary (sell-side participants)

    UT
    • None
    Neutral
    • None
    DT
    • None
    Note
    (1) COT Index >= 90, Buying interest at extreme
    (2) COT Index <= 10, Selling interest at extreme
    (3) COT Index >= 70, rising COT Index, monitor for trend reversal
    Down Trend and Up Trend is based on 50 Simple Moving Average 


    US markets closed lower except Nasdaq closed at historic high again. 
    DOW's trend (50 SMA) in the daily chart had started to turn down while S&P become flat.
    COT remained below 70 range.

    Dow
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around TLU5, 21,099, TLU6, 21,451
    Potential support around 20,756, TLU11, TLU2, 19,968, TLU4, 19,440, 18,669, 18,557, TLU1, 18,367

    S&P
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 2,392, TLU5, TLU1,2,522
    Potential support around 2,366, 2,337, 2,285, 2,187, TLU4, 2,161, 2,137, 2,129, 2,116

    Nasdaq
    Daily UT, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 6,261
    Potential support around TLU3, 5,538, TLU7, TLU5, TLU4, 5,237, TLU1, 5,041

    Russell
    Daily Neutral, Weekly UT
    Potential resistance around 1,389, TLU1, TLU3, TLU5, 1,519
    Potential support around 1,341, 1,296, 1,287, 1,274, 1,259(4), 1,240, TLU2, 1,213

    Key event to watch out  (SG Time)


      15 May, Mon
      • 1000 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr)  
      16 May, Tue
      • 0930 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
      • 1630 GBP CPI (YoY) (Apr)
      • 1700 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May)
      • 1700 EUR GDP (YoY)
      • 2030 USD Building Permits (Apr)
      17 May, Wed
      • 1630 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar)
      • 1630 GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr)
      • 1700 EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr)
      • 2230 USD Crude Oil Inventories
      18 May, Thu
      • 0750 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
      • 0930 AUD Employment Change (Apr) 
      • 1630 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 
      • 2030 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) 
      19 May, Fri
      • 2030 CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 
      • 2030 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

      Sunday, May 7, 2017

      Dollar Index broke support

      Dollar Index broke and closed below TLU7 support.  If 98.3 support unable to hold, 97.3 will be next support level.
      In the weekly chart, it closed with an outside day.
      Resistance at TLU7, TLU9, 99.8, 100.3, TLD6, 101.5, Trend Channel (Blue), TLU6, 102.2
      Support at 98.3, TLD5, 97.3, 96.3


      USD Impact currencies/Gold/Crude(wow)

      Weekly chart with 50 SMA